{"id":46878,"date":"2023-12-16T12:11:23","date_gmt":"2023-12-16T11:11:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/staging.captrader.com\/analyse\/dax-prognose-und-analyse-neue-allzeithochs-im-dezember\/"},"modified":"2024-03-24T14:59:50","modified_gmt":"2024-03-24T13:59:50","slug":"dax-forecast-and-analysis-new-all-time-highs-in-december","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/dax-prognose-und-analyse-neue-allzeithochs-im-dezember\/","title":{"rendered":"DAX forecast and analysis: New all-time highs in December"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although pessimism and negative analyses prevailed throughout 2023, the DAX has crept up to a new all-time high in recent weeks. In just six weeks, the leading German index has climbed around 2000 points and is currently trading at just over 16750 points (closing price Friday).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>ECB not (yet) sending clear signals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

After there has been no significant correction since the beginning of November, the question is whether or when it will come. While the DAX initially benefited from the positive sentiment on the US markets on Thursday, triggered by the Fed meeting and the prospect of interest rate cuts in the near future, this was followed by at least a brief dip in sentiment on Thursday after the ECB meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Central Bank has not yet given any clear indications that an interest rate cut is being discussed. At least it has not openly admitted this. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell proved once again last week that the rhetoric of a central bank can turn 180 degrees within a few weeks. In any case, the market's expectations of interest rate cuts in the eurozone next year remain, and if the ECB communicates this openly at the latest, this should give the DAX another tailwind in the coming year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Trend towards disinflation continues<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The reason for the interest rate hikes by the ECB and all major international central banks in the last two years was the rapid rise in inflation rates (consumer prices). The prerequisite for a return to interest rate levels within the 2 % target range or for interest rate cuts in the coming year is therefore a continuing trend of disinflation. After an annual CPI in Germany of 10.4 % in November 2022, we saw a continuous decline in consumer prices to currently 3.2 %. This is already below the key interest rate level of 4.5 %. If this trend continues in Germany and other key eurozone countries next year, the pressure on the ECB to cut interest rates will also increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Sales under high volume<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The DAX is currently trading just a few points below its all-time high. However, it is worth noting that selling took place on Thursday and Friday in very high volumes. This is at least a short-term warning signal that a correction could be initiated, especially as the index is heavily overbought.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DAX daily chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The weekly chart has also formed a reversal signal (doji candle) under high volume. From a candlestick analysis perspective, this does not necessarily mean a correction or trend reversal; however, it is a signal that the movement has lost momentum and a correction or consolidation has become more likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DAX weekly chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Technical chart supports & correction targets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should the correction be initiated, the DAX is currently well supported in the range of 16470 - 16500 points. The previous all-time and annual high from July is located at this price level. In addition, the daily EMA 20 will run into this price area in a few days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DAX daily chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If buy signals appear here again, a direct continuation of the trend would be possible. If the support area cannot be defended and we see a close below 16400 points as early as December, the technical picture would be gloomy, at least in the short term. A look at the monthly chart makes this clear, as in this case the breakout on a monthly basis could be seen as having failed and a reversal signal would emerge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DAX monthly chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Watch second-line stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As far as the medium-term outlook for the German stock market is concerned, the second-line stocks should not be forgotten either. In a sustained and stable upward trend, it should not only be the heavyweights in the DAX that lead the trend. Rather, we want to see the broad market participate. If this is not the case, the DAX rally will also be on shaky ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the MDAX and SDAX have also recorded significant price gains in recent weeks, neither index has been able to reach a new high for the year. This does not necessarily mean a negative signal for the DAX, but the second-line stocks should be monitored closely. If there is a relevant divergence here, this could also put pressure on the DAX.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the MDAX, this means that the support area marked in green in the chart below must be defended or held. A breakout below the important daily EMAs and below the lower Bollinger band would increase the probability of prices falling again in the MDAX. However, a defense of the support and subsequent buying would confirm the trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MDAX daily chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author: Tobias Schmid<\/a>
Date: 18.12.2023<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Liebe Trader, liebe B\u00f6rsenfreunde. Obwohl im gesamten Jahr 2023 der Pessimismus und negative Analysen vorherrschend waren, hat sich der DAX in den letzten Wochen auf ein neues Allzeithoch geschlichen. In nur sechs Wochen kletterte der deutsche Leitindex rund 2000 Punkte nach oben und notiert aktuell (Schlusskurs Freitag) knapp \u00fcber 16750 Punkten. EZB sendet (noch) keine […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":46884,"template":"","analysen-kategorie":[856,849],"class_list":["post-46878","analyse","type-analyse","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","analysen-kategorie-dax","analysen-kategorie-index"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse\/46878","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/analyse"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/46884"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46878"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"analysen-kategorie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analysen-kategorie?post=46878"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}