{"id":46885,"date":"2024-01-08T08:46:03","date_gmt":"2024-01-08T07:46:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/staging.captrader.com\/analyse\/nasdaq-100-prognose-analyse-korrektur-ueberfaellig\/"},"modified":"2024-03-24T14:59:45","modified_gmt":"2024-03-24T13:59:45","slug":"nasdaq-100-forecast-analysis-correction-overdue","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/nasdaq-100-prognose-analyse-korrektur-ueberfaellig\/","title":{"rendered":"Nasdaq 100 Forecast & Analysis: Correction overdue"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear trader, dear stock market friends,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With a minus of 1.7 % on the first trading day and a minus of 3.1 % in the first trading week, the Nasdaq 100 had a weak start to the new stock market year 2024. This was preceded by a strong rally in recent weeks, which led to a net gain of 53.8 % for the full year 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both sentiment and all momentum indicators signaled a strongly overbought market, which is why the current correction should come as a surprise to very few investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Overarching upward trend intact<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Aus markttechnischer Sicht ist eine Korrektur nach einer solch starken Aufw\u00e4rtsbewegung als Zeichen eines gesunden Trends zu werten. Eine weitere ungebremste Fortsetzung der Rally hingegen w\u00e4re ein Zeichen der \u00dcbertreibung gewesen und h\u00e4tte die Gefahr f\u00fcr ein \u201cb\u00f6ses Ende\u201d - das hei\u00dft einen deutlich st\u00e4rkeren Kurseinbruch - erh\u00f6ht.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Im nachfolgenden Wochen-Chart des Nasdaq 100 ist der langfristige Trendverlauf (Bewegungs- und Korrekturphasen) visualisiert. Die letzte Bewegung in Trendrichtung f\u00fchrte den Index von rund 14.200 Punkten auf einen neuen lokalen Hochpunkt bei rund 16.900 Punkten. Was die klassische Trend-Definition betrifft, gilt der langfristige Aufw\u00e4rtstrend als intakt, solange der letzte lokale Tiefpunkt des Trends bei 14.100 - 14.200 Punkten nicht unterschritten wird.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Opportunities in the current market environment<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As a result of the trend described above, positioning out of the correction in the direction of the overriding trend represents an attractive trading opportunity. This can be realized, for example, with directional trades in futures or ETFs on the Nasdaq 100. However, the index trend should also be taken into account for trades in individual stocks. Another attractive strategy in this market environment can be the sale of put options on the index, on index futures and on ETFs or shares; either with the aim of buying the underlying if necessary (cash-secured put) or purely speculatively, e.g. with bull put spreads.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Technical chart support<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

When and how exactly an entry is implemented depends on the individual strategy. It often makes sense to identify support levels and observe whether bullish signals occur here. Two support zones are shown in the following weekly chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Die erste Unterst\u00fctzung befindet sich bei 16.000 - 16.100 Punkten. Hier fand der letzte charttechnische Ausbruch Anfang Dezember statt. Bemerkenswert ist dabei das stark angestiegene Volumen (roter Pfeil). Dies l\u00e4sst vermuten, dass wir hier mit einer Gegenreaktion der Bullen rechnen k\u00f6nnen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bei 15.700 - 15.800 Punkten befindet sich die n\u00e4chste wichtige Unterst\u00fctzungszone. Auf diesem Kursniveau befindet sich der letzte lokale Hochpunkt des Aufw\u00e4rtstrends aus dem Juli 2023. Zudem verl\u00e4uft die Wochen-EMA 20 (lila) aktuell auf diesem Kursniveau. Abh\u00e4ngig von der zeitlichen Ausdehnung der Korrektur sehen wir zudem die Aufw\u00e4rtstrendlinie (gestrichelte rote Linie), welche f\u00fcr Unterst\u00fctzung sorgen k\u00f6nnte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Nasdaq 100 weekly chart with support zones<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Fibonacci retracement levels are marked in the following daily chart. It can be seen that all three important correction levels coincide with the three local highs of the corrective movement in the summer months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Nasdaq 100 daily chart with Fibonacci correction levels<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Relative strength<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Among the well-known American share indices, the Nasdaq 100 was the strongest index last year and technology shares led the upward trend of the broad market. In addition to the mere comparison of percentage performance, relationship charts are very well suited to recognizing the relative strength or weakness of a market and to identifying early changes in relative strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A relationship chart or relationship line is created when one underlying is divided by another. In this case, we use the well-known ETFs: QQQ and SPY. (The index itself can also be used.) The following chart shows that throughout 2023 the relation line trended upwards. Relationship charts can be analyzed using standard technical analysis tools. Moving averages and trend lines are very well suited to analyzing the trend of a relationship line in addition to the trend course.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The following chart still signals an upward trend based on the EMAs 20 and 50. However, if the Nasdaq 100 continues to show weakness in the coming weeks, there is a risk that the trend will be broken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The analysis of the relative strength of technology stocks (QQQ:SPY) is also a tool that generates very valuable signals from the perspective of intermarket analysis. It can be seen, for example, that the bear market in 2022 was accompanied by a downward trend in the ratio line, i.e. by relative weakness in the Nasdaq 100. What is more, the ratio line announced the trend reversals of the broad market at an early stage or at least generated significant warning signals. The same happened at the beginning of 2023: Here, the relation line turned upwards and signaled a trend reversal of the broad market at an early stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Relation line: Nasdaq 100 divided by S&P 500 (QQQ:SPY)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author: Tobias Schmid<\/a>
Date: 08.01.2024<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lieber Trader, liebe B\u00f6rsenfreunde, mit einem Minus von 1,7 % am ersten Handelstag und einem Minus von 3,1 % in der ersten Handelswoche startete der Nasdaq 100 schwach in das neue B\u00f6rsenjahr 2024. Vorausgegangen war in den letzten Wochen eine starke Rally, welche unterm Strich zu einem Plus von 53,8 % f\u00fcr das gesamte Jahr […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":46886,"template":"","analysen-kategorie":[849,858],"class_list":["post-46885","analyse","type-analyse","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","analysen-kategorie-index","analysen-kategorie-nasdaq-100"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse\/46885","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/analyse"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/46886"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46885"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"analysen-kategorie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analysen-kategorie?post=46885"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}