{"id":53679,"date":"2024-08-12T09:29:22","date_gmt":"2024-08-12T07:29:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=53679"},"modified":"2024-08-12T09:29:23","modified_gmt":"2024-08-12T07:29:23","slug":"dax-forecast-and-analysis-the-panic-is-already-over","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/dax-prognose-und-analyse-ist-die-panik-schon-vorueber\/","title":{"rendered":"DAX forecast and analysis: Is the panic already over?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The DAX ended the past trading week at 17,723 points, closing 62 points or 0.35 % higher than in the previous week. At first glance, this would appear to be a comparatively quiet trading week. Of course, this is not the case if you look at the movements and events during the week. On Monday, for example, there was a real sense of panic that led to a sell-off on stock markets around the world. Over the course of the week, however, the markets calmed down again and recovered the price losses of the first half of the week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Japanese stock market and Japanese yen cause a moment of shock<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week got off to a turbulent start on Monday after Japan's benchmark Nikkei index suffered a historic loss overnight, shedding 12.4 %. The negative sentiment continued during the European and US trading sessions and all major stock indices came under pressure. The DAX fell by 3.6 % at its peak, but had already recovered some of its losses by the end of trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The extent of the short-term panic can be seen by looking at the US volatility index VIX. This rose to 65.73 points on Monday, the third-highest level on record. Higher values were only reached during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 coronavirus crash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Concerns had previously spread that the US Federal Reserve had kept interest rates at too high a level for too long and that a global recession might be imminent as a result. The sharp rise in the Japanese yen in recent weeks, which was accelerated by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on July 31, also signaled that market participants were increasingly liquidating short positions in the yen. Due to its low interest rate level, the Japanese yen has been considered a typical carry trade currency for many years. This means that many investors borrow in yen and invest the capital in US or other currencies. The unwinding of the yen carry trade due to the rise in interest rates therefore led to many \"risk assets\", including equities, coming under pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>DAX briefly falls below EMA 200<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The following chart shows that the DAX fell below the EMA 200 (red) last Monday and reversed at the 17,000 point level. The fact that the index recaptured the EMA 200 over the course of the week is a positive signal. However, the DAX is currently at a very important price zone just above 17,000 points. As this support area was recently breached to the downside, there is still a risk that the DAX will turn down again this week. If this happens, it will be decisive whether the lows of the past week can hold or not. If the index continues to rise directly and recaptures the old support area, this would be a further positive signal and would indicate a chart-technical false breakout on the downside, which in turn would increase the probability of a breakout on the upside. However, the chart picture will only brighten significantly if there is a breakout above the 18,200 points and the daily EMAs 50 (green) and 20 (purple).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"DAX<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

DAX daily chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The weekly chart shows that the DAX was able to defend the weekly EMA 50 and a candlestick reversal signal emerged. The trend channel is also still intact. However, the support area at 17,750 points has also been broken and must first be reclaimed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"DAX<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

DAX weekly chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author Tobias Schmid<\/a>
Date: 12.08.2024<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Liebe Trader, liebe B\u00f6rsenfreunde. Der DAX beendete die vergangene Handelswoche mit einem Schlusskurs von 17.723 Punkten und schloss somit 62 Punkte bzw. 0,35 % h\u00f6her als in der Vorwoche. Auf den ersten Blick also eine vergleichsweise ruhige Handelswoche. Dies trifft nat\u00fcrlich nicht zu, wenn man die Bewegungen und Geschehnisse innerhalb der Woche betrachtet. So trat […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":53680,"template":"","analysen-kategorie":[856,849],"class_list":["post-53679","analyse","type-analyse","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","analysen-kategorie-dax","analysen-kategorie-index"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse\/53679","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/analyse"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/53680"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53679"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"analysen-kategorie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analysen-kategorie?post=53679"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}