{"id":55589,"date":"2024-09-02T08:38:32","date_gmt":"2024-09-02T06:38:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=55589"},"modified":"2024-09-02T08:38:33","modified_gmt":"2024-09-02T06:38:33","slug":"sp-500-forecast-analysis-uptrend-in-full-swing","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/sp-500-prognose-analyse-aufwaertstrend-in-vollem-gange\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500 forecast & analysis: Upward trend in full swing"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the S&P 500 mostly moved sideways and closed virtually unchanged on a weekly basis. Today, Monday, September 2, the US stock markets will remain closed for Labor Day before trading resumes on Tuesday. As the S&P 500 closed only minimally below its all-time high from July on Friday, it will be interesting to see whether the index manages to break out to a new all-time high in the coming days or whether it initially goes into correction mode again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Focus on labor market data on September 6<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Following the brief slump at the beginning of August, the S&P 500 has recovered quickly in recent weeks. The inflation indicators published in August signaled a continuing trend towards disinflation and gave the stock market a tailwind. At the same time, the latest economic and labor market data gave no renewed cause for concern about a recession. A rate cut at the next central bank meeting on September 18 is as good as certain. The only question that remains is the extent of the first rate cut. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut of 25 basis points is currently around 70 %. The probability of 50 basis points is 30 %. However, if the labor market data (non-farm payrolls) on Friday, September 6, is again very weak, the probability of a rate cut of 50 basis points is likely to increase significantly. However, there is a high risk that a very weak labor market report could weigh on the equity markets again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Short-term sideways trend in the S&P 500<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As you can see on the following daily chart, the S&P 500 Index rose on Friday amid increased volume and is only a few points below the previous all-time highs. The uptrend has recently continued under increasing momentum, as can be seen from the widening gap between the EMA 20 (purple) and the EMA 50 (green).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index daily chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a smaller timeframe such as the 4-hour chart (below), it can be seen that the E-mini S&P 500 future is currently trading in a short-term sideways range, which is limited on the upside at 5665 points and on the downside at around 5580 points. A breakout to the upside would significantly increase the probability of an immediate trend continuation, whereas a breakout to the downside would represent a short-term bearish signal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

E-mini S&P 500 Future 4-hour chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Market breadth confirms bull market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

From the perspective of market breadth, we are currently still seeing a very healthy bull market supported by the broad mass of stocks. The Advance-Decline Line is rising steeply and the number of stocks with new 52-week highs on the NYSE is significantly higher than the number of stocks with new 52-week lows. In addition, the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index is showing relative strength and has already made several new all-time highs in the last two weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index daily chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>September historically weakest month in the S&P 500<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the current strong upward trend in the S&P 500, seasonality should not be ignored. September is by far the weakest month for the S&P 500. In the last 50 years, the index has only risen in September in 42 % of all cases. The seasonal trends shown below for the last 30, 20, 10 and 5 years also show a setback in September in all periods under review.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Seasonal<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Seasonal trends of the S&P 500 Index (various observation periods)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The good news is that if there is a significant correction in September, there is a very good chance from a seasonal perspective that the upward trend will continue from October until the end of the year. A correction in September would therefore be a welcome opportunity to seek a long trade out of the correction. However, due to the intact upward trend and the very strong bullish momentum, speculating on falling prices would be very risky due to seasonality alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author: Tobias Schmid<\/a>
Date: 02.09.2024<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Liebe Trader, liebe B\u00f6rsenfreunde. In der vergangenen Woche bewegte sich der S&P 500 \u00fcberwiegend seitw\u00e4rts und schloss auf Wochenbasis nahezu unver\u00e4ndert. Am heutigen Montag, dem 2.September, bleiben die US-Aktienm\u00e4rkte aufgrund des Labor Days (Tag der Arbeit) noch geschlossen, bevor der Handel am Dienstag wieder aufgenommen wird. Da der S&P 500 am Freitag nur minimal unter […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":55591,"template":"","analysen-kategorie":[],"class_list":["post-55589","analyse","type-analyse","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse\/55589","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/analyse"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/55591"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"analysen-kategorie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analysen-kategorie?post=55589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}