{"id":55708,"date":"2024-09-09T09:58:06","date_gmt":"2024-09-09T07:58:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=55708"},"modified":"2024-09-09T09:58:07","modified_gmt":"2024-09-09T07:58:07","slug":"dax-forecast-and-analysis-dax-in-correction-mode-3","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/dax-prognose-und-analyse-dax-im-korrekturmodus\/","title":{"rendered":"DAX forecast and analysis: DAX in correction mode"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The DAX started the trading week last Monday with a new all-time high of 18,931 points. However, the positive sentiment did not last long and significant losses followed as the week progressed. The leading German index lost 3.2 % over the week compared to the previous week and the chart picture became somewhat gloomier, at least in the short term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Short-term downward trend<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the following hourly chart of the DAX future, you can see that a downtrend has formed over the course of the last week (falling highs and falling lows). In addition, the DAX future fell below the moving averages (EMA 20, EMA 50, EMA 200) on the hourly chart, which is a confirming signal for the downtrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"DAX<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

DAX future hourly chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should a short-term correction of this downward trend - i.e. an upward movement - take place at the beginning of the week, this would create a setup for a short-term short trade in the area of the downward trend line. A breakout above the trend line would be an initial positive signal. However, the DAX would only be truly long again if the subordinate downtrend is reversed and a breakout above the EMAs and ideally above the resistance at around 18,650 points occurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Long-term upward trend intact<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the downward trend shown at the top of the hourly chart is only a secondary downward trend. The primary uptrend is still unbroken. In other words, the short-term secondary downtrend represents the correction of the overriding primary uptrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A look at the daily chart reveals the extent of the correction potential. As you can see, the next important support zone is located at around 17,800 - 17,900 points. On the one hand, this is the upward trend line (connecting the last two local lows on a closing price basis), and on the other hand, there is horizontal support in this area. There is also the daily EMA 200 (red), which also runs into this price zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"DAX<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

DAX Index daily chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the DAX reaches this support area this week or next week, it is worth watching out for bullish signals (trend reversal on a subordinate trend size, buying or reversal signals under high volume, etc.). The fact that the long-term uptrend is still intact can also be seen from the upward slope of the EMA 200. Should the EMA 200 be sustainably broken to the downside, this would represent a further bearish signal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current sideways range is also clearly visible on the weekly chart. The resistance area on the upper side is located at around 18,900 - 19,000 points. On the downside, there are some important weekly closing prices at around 17,700 points as well as the weekly EMA 50 (green), which reinforce the support area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DAX Index weekly chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>SDAX and MDAX weak<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the most recent downward movement in the DAX can currently only be interpreted as a correction of the overriding upward trend, the development of second-line stocks looks much weaker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The SDAX also performed poorly last week and has since fallen back below the important support zone at 14,100 points and is trading below the weekly EMAs 20, 50 and 200.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"SDAX<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

SDAX weekly chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The daily chart also looks anything but bullish at the moment. The EMAs have turned down and are signaling a downward trend, as is the sequence of falling highs and falling lows. For a bullish signal to emerge, the SDAX would first have to recapture the resistance at 14,100 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"SDAX<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

SDAX daily chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The chart for the MDAX looks almost identical. The EMAs on a daily basis signal a downward trend and the index has fallen below the support level of 26,000 points. For a technical long signal to emerge, the MDAX would have to recapture this price area. There is currently potential for a correction to 23,800 - 24,000 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"MDAX<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

MDAX daily chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Developments in the USA continue to play an important role for the DAX. Last Friday's weak labor market data led to renewed selling pressure on the US markets, which did not spare the European markets either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week, the focus is on the following dates:<\/p>\n\n\n\n