{"id":56032,"date":"2024-09-30T09:04:45","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T07:04:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=56032"},"modified":"2024-09-30T09:04:45","modified_gmt":"2024-09-30T07:04:45","slug":"sp-500-forecast-analysis-all-time-highs-despite-weak-seasonality","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/sp-500-prognose-analyse-allzeithochs-trotz-schwacher-saisonalitaet\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500 forecast & analysis: All-time highs despite weak seasonality"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the summer months, especially in September, the stock market typically tends to be somewhat weaker and is susceptible to a correction. Although there has been a brief increase in volatility in recent weeks and the S&P 500 corrected by a few percentage points, the index has risen to new all-time highs in the past two trading weeks, confirming the bull market. Bullish strategies therefore remain the preferred choice for the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Far advanced movement in the upward trend<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Although the S&P 500 reached several all-time highs again last week, the momentum weakened somewhat. With a closing price of 5738 points, the index closed only 0.62 % points higher than the previous week. From a market-technical perspective, a short-term correction to the 5650 points area would be a welcome opportunity for renewed long trades. There are several levels of support here: On the one hand, the horizontal support provided by the previous local highs of the uptrend; on the other hand, the EMA 20 runs in this area. The trend lines shown below also reinforce the support area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index daily chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition to waiting for a correction, strategies such as cash-secured puts (e.g. on the SPY) with a strike price close to the support zone are an option. On the one hand, this can generate a premium income and, on the other, a profit if the S&P 500 does not correct and continues to rise directly or moves sideways. However, directional long trades currently appear somewhat risky due to the advanced stage of the movement and do not offer a favorable risk\/reward ratio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Market breadth confirms bull market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The upward trend in the S&P 500 is not only intact from the perspective of \"classic\" chart technology, the market breadth also supports the bull case. The most important market breadth indicators signal that the broad mass of all shares are participating in the upward trend and that the bull market is therefore broadly based.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Advance Decline Line rises steeply<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Advance Decline Line is in a strong uptrend. In addition, the AD Line has lived up to its reputation as a leading indicator in recent weeks and months. New highs in the S&P 500 were announced early on by a breakout of the AD Line. It is therefore worth keeping an eye out for this signal during the next correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Advance<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

NYSE Advance Decline Line (red) and S&P 500 Index daily chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Viele Aktien mit neuen 52-Wochen-Hochs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Another important trend-confirming signal can be seen when looking at the number of stocks with new 52-week highs and 52-week lows on the NYSE. The number of stocks with new highs is significantly higher than the number of stocks with new lows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"NYSE<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

NYSE New Highs (green), New Lows (red), New Highs - New Lows (black)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Over 80 % of shares in an upward trend<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The 200-day line (SMA 200) can be seen as a simple trend-following indicator to define the long-term trend. In a healthy bull market, the majority of all stocks should follow the prevailing uptrend and therefore trade above the SMA 200. If this is not the case, it would be an indication that the index is only being held up by a small number of stocks with a high market weighting, which would mean an increased risk of a trend reversal. However, we currently see that over 80 % of all stocks in the S&P 500 are in an uptrend, as measured by the SMA 200. As can be seen in the chart below, this number has increased over the past week and is now at its highest level in about six months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Percent<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Percent S&P 500 shares above SMA 200<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Overbought in the short term<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As far as the short-term trend is concerned, it is also worth analyzing how many stocks are trading above the SMA 20. The chart below shows the S&P 500 Index and the red line below it shows the proportion of stocks in the S&P 500 that are trading above the SMA 20. The red and green dashed lines indicate the extreme areas. When the line rises above 80 %, this is often a sign that the market is somewhat overheated or overbought and a consolidation or correction has become more likely. Although there is currently still some room for upward movement, the air is gradually becoming thinner. There would therefore be a higher probability of a significant upward movement after a correction, as mentioned at the beginning of this article.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index, percentage of shares above SMA 20 (red line), RSI<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author: Tobias Schmid<\/a>
Date: 30.09.2024<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Liebe Trader, liebe B\u00f6rsenfreunde. W\u00e4hrend der Sommermonate, insbesondere im September, tendiert der Aktienmarkt typischerweise etwas schw\u00e4cher und ist anf\u00e4llig f\u00fcr eine Korrektur. Zwar gab es w\u00e4hrend der letzten Wochen eine kurzzeitig erh\u00f6hte Volatilit\u00e4t und der S&P 500 korrigierte um einige Prozentpunkte; allerdings stieg der Index in den vergangenen beiden Handelswochen wieder auf neue Allzeithochs an […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":56033,"template":"","analysen-kategorie":[849,860],"class_list":["post-56032","analyse","type-analyse","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","analysen-kategorie-index","analysen-kategorie-sp-500-2"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse\/56032","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/analyse"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56033"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56032"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"analysen-kategorie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analysen-kategorie?post=56032"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}