The VIX volatility index is a good indicator of the heightened nervousness caused by the upcoming presidential election. This is calculated from the implied volatilities of the S&P 500 Index options. Rising option prices under otherwise unchanged circumstances indicate an increased demand for options to hedge portfolios. A score of over 20 often signals increased uncertainty or an increased need to hedge on the part of market participants. Such a high VIX score is usually associated with falling share prices. However, the S&P 500 is currently only a few points below its all-time high, which is why a VIX of over 20 points is unusual.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/a>Trump vs Harris - Who is better for the stock market?<\/h2>\n\n\n\nSo is the stock market afraid of one of the two candidates winning the election or is there a possible winner who would be positive for the performance of the stock market? While Donald Trump would tend to be the more business-friendly president, a victory for Kamala Harris would probably be more in favor of \"business as usual\". Which scenario is better for the stock market remains a matter of speculation. However, if there is a clear election winner next week, there is a high probability that the uncertainty will disappear from the market, regardless of who wins the election. If, on the other hand, there is an extremely close election result, possibly involving the risk of a legal conflict lasting weeks or months, this could weigh on the stock market. The question therefore arises as to how much risk you want to take over the election period. Waiting and watching is certainly not a bad strategy. The next opportunity for a trade will certainly arise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/a>Technical outlook for the S&P 500<\/h2>\n\n\n\nAs you can see on the weekly chart below, the S&P 500 Index is currently in a technically sound upward trend, as can be seen from the sequence of rising highs and rising lows as well as the upward moving averages. The index last broke out to new highs in September and has since made several all-time highs. If there is a short-term correction, this will not initially change the overarching upward trend, which is why this can be seen as an opportunity to enter long again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"S&P](\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/word-image-56435-1.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nS&P 500 Index daily chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/a>Market breadth confirms bull market<\/h2>\n\n\n\nThe market breadth continues to signal a healthy bull market, which is not only led by a few heavyweights, but is supported by the participation of a large number of all stocks. In the S&P 500, around 72 % of all shares are currently above the 200-day line. On the New York Stock Exchange, about 66 % of all stocks are above the SMA 200. The number of stocks with new 52-week highs has been higher than the number of stocks with new 52-week lows on every single trading day since August 13.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Although the Advance Decline Line has been showing a slight retracement for a few days, the overriding upward trend can also be clearly seen as trend-confirming for the broad market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"Advance](\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/word-image-56435-2.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nAdvance Decline Line & S&P 500 (daily chart)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As you can see on the weekly chart below, the S&P 500 Index is currently in a technically sound upward trend, as can be seen from the sequence of rising highs and rising lows as well as the upward moving averages. The index last broke out to new highs in September and has since made several all-time highs. If there is a short-term correction, this will not initially change the overarching upward trend, which is why this can be seen as an opportunity to enter long again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n S&P 500 Index daily chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n The market breadth continues to signal a healthy bull market, which is not only led by a few heavyweights, but is supported by the participation of a large number of all stocks. In the S&P 500, around 72 % of all shares are currently above the 200-day line. On the New York Stock Exchange, about 66 % of all stocks are above the SMA 200. The number of stocks with new 52-week highs has been higher than the number of stocks with new 52-week lows on every single trading day since August 13.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Although the Advance Decline Line has been showing a slight retracement for a few days, the overriding upward trend can also be clearly seen as trend-confirming for the broad market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Advance Decline Line & S&P 500 (daily chart)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a>Market breadth confirms bull market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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