{"id":56578,"date":"2024-11-04T08:39:06","date_gmt":"2024-11-04T07:39:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=56578"},"modified":"2024-11-04T08:39:06","modified_gmt":"2024-11-04T07:39:06","slug":"dax-forecast-and-analysis-waiting-for-us-elections","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/dax-prognose-und-analyse-warten-auf-us-wahlen\/","title":{"rendered":"DAX forecast and analysis: Waiting for US elections"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After the DAX reached a new all-time high in mid-October with a rise to 19,675 points, a moderate correction followed in the last two trading weeks. The overarching upward trend is intact and setbacks in such a market environment are generally a good opportunity to look for new trades in the direction of the primary upward trend. However, the US presidential election will take place this week on Tuesday, November 5, and this event is also likely to have an impact on the European equity markets. Both a direct continuation of the upward trend and an extension of the correction seem possible. Instead of speculating on how the stock markets will react to the outcome of the election, it makes more sense to consider all possible scenarios and develop a plan for each one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Short-term support at 19,000 points<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the following daily chart, you can see from the turning points marked in yellow that the DAX has formed a new upward trend starting from 17,200 points after the short-lived price slump in August, i.e. a sequence of rising highs and rising lows. However, this upward trend is \"only\" a secondary or subordinate upward trend. This means that this secondary uptrend represents the movement phase of the primary (long-term) uptrend. Even a break in the secondary trend would not end the primary uptrend, but would merely be a signal of a correction in the primary trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"DAX<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

DAX Index daily chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The momentum weakened a little at the end of October. You can recognize this from two observations:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  1. While the DAX always broke out above the upper Bollinger band during previous upward movements, the last rally attempt failed a few points below the upper Bollinger band.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. At the same time, the RSI (you can see it below the chart) signaled a weakening momentum. The RSI generated a lower high and thus a bearish divergence.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    The correction led the index directly to the 19,000-point mark. This is currently an important support area formed by a combination of different factors:<\/p>\n\n\n\n