{"id":56780,"date":"2024-11-18T08:17:30","date_gmt":"2024-11-18T07:17:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=56780"},"modified":"2024-11-18T08:17:30","modified_gmt":"2024-11-18T07:17:30","slug":"dow-jones-forecast-analysis-correction-week","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/dow-jones-prognose-analyse-korrektur-woche\/","title":{"rendered":"Dow Jones Forecast & Analysis: Correction Week"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear trader, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After the initial very bullish reaction to the outcome of the US election in the week before last, the US equity indices went into correction mode in the past trading week. While the S&P 500 lost 2.1 %, the Nasdaq 100 fell by 3.4 % and the Russell 2000 fell by as much as 4.1 %, the Dow Jones held up comparatively well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average corrected by 1.2 %. The Dow Jones Transportation Average also fell by just 0.7 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Dow Jones daily chart<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The daily chart shows that a clear upward trend has prevailed in the Dow Jones since August. The movement and correction phases are clearly recognizable (rising highs and rising lows). Although it is not possible to predict when the correction will end, the probability of a continuation of the trend is high as long as there are no signals to the contrary (trend break or trend reversal).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Dow Jones Index corrected to a price level of 43,350 points. This is precisely where a technical support area is located, generated by the previous local high from October. The daily EMA 20 is currently also just below this price zone, which further strengthens the support area. There is therefore a chance that we will see a direct continuation of the trend this week. However, even if the price falls below 43,350 points, the upward trend is still intact and the next support is waiting in the area of the daily EMA 50.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Dow<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Dow Jones Index daily chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Dow Jones weekly chart<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The weekly chart shows that the primary uptrend is in an advanced phase of movement. The price of the Dow Jones is close to the upper trend channel line and the fact that the upper Bollinger band has been broken is another very bullish signal, but it also shows that the air is getting a little thin in the short term. Even if the support zones mentioned above and visible on the daily chart do not hold, another opportunity for a continuation of the upward trend will arise in the area of the weekly EMA 20 at around 42,000 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Dow<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Dow Jones weekly chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Transportation index develops relative strength<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The oldest share index in the USA is the Dow Jones Transportation Average. This was also created by Charles Dow in 1884, a few years before the Dow Jones Industrial Average was published. According to classic Dow theory, the signals of the two indices must confirm each other in order to be valid. This means that a breakout to a new high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average should be confirmed by a breakout to a new high in the transportation index. If this is the case, the probability of a trend continuation is very high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weekly chart below, you can see that the Dow Jones Transportation Index recently made a strong bullish breakout and reached a new high on a weekly closing basis. This comes after the transportation index slightly underperformed the Dow Jones and the broader market throughout 2024. The line below the chart divides the Dow Jones Transportation Index by the Dow Jones Industrials Index. A rising ratio line is a sign of relative strength and means that the transportation index is outperforming the industrial index. While this ratio line has been in a downtrend since mid-2023, a relative strength breakout has occurred in the last two weeks. The relative strength of the transportation index can be seen as another positive signal for the broad bull market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Dow<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Dow Jones Transportation Average weekly chart<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Biotech and pharmaceutical shares under pressure<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In addition to the positive development of the broad market following the US election, a strong sector rotation can also be observed. This means that market participants are positioning themselves bullishly, particularly in sectors that are likely to benefit from the new Trump administration next year. By contrast, shares from sectors that are likely to face political headwinds are coming under pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last week, this was particularly the case for biotech and pharmaceutical stocks, due to the appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the future Secretary of Health and Human Services. Although this personnel decision was announced and foreseeable before the election, the official announcement was only made last week. Among the biggest losers of the 30 Dow Jones stocks were Amgen and Merck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author: Tobias Schmid<\/a>
Date: 18.11.2024<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lieber Trader, liebe B\u00f6rsenfreunde. Nach der initialen sehr bullischen Reaktion auf das Ergebnis der US-Wahl in der vorletzten Woche, legten die amerikanischen Aktienindizes in der vergangenen Handelswoche den Korrekturmodus ein. W\u00e4hrend der S&P 500 2,1 % abgab, der Nasdaq 100 ein Minus von 3,4 % verzeichnete und der Russell 2000 sogar 4,1 % fiel, konnte […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":56781,"template":"","analysen-kategorie":[857,849],"class_list":["post-56780","analyse","type-analyse","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","analysen-kategorie-dow-jones","analysen-kategorie-index"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse\/56780","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/analyse"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56781"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56780"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"analysen-kategorie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analysen-kategorie?post=56780"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}