{"id":57667,"date":"2024-12-30T08:08:38","date_gmt":"2024-12-30T07:08:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=57667"},"modified":"2024-12-30T08:08:39","modified_gmt":"2024-12-30T07:08:39","slug":"sp-500-forecast-analysis-market-needs-a-breather","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/sp-500-prognose-analyse-markt-braucht-verschnaufpause\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500 forecast & analysis: Market needs a breather"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has risen 25.2 % since the beginning of the year. Since the start of the bull market in October 2023, the gain has even amounted to around 45 %. Between January and November 2024, there were only two months with a negative performance. The S&P 500 achieved a positive monthly result nine times. In December, the index was down a few points as at 27 December despite the seasonal tailwind; however, the disappointment is likely to be limited for most investors thanks to the strong annual performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Short-term correction in the S&P 500<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The most recent correction in the S&P 500 was triggered by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference following the interest rate decision on December 18. The upward revision of inflation expectations and the outlook of only two interest rate cuts in the coming year led to selling pressure on the equity markets, at least in the short term. In addition, US government bond prices came under pressure and the US dollar received a strong tailwind, which also weighed on the price of gold and silver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The correction in the S&P 500 ran right into the support area at 5870 points. The market found support here and the subsequent short-term rally pushed the index up to 6050 points. Last Friday saw renewed selling pressure, but a countermovement followed in the final hours of trading. In addition, the daily EMA 50 (green) was defended and the VIX also fell significantly at the end of trading. Both can be interpreted as signs of easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Line
S&P 500 daily chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Offensive sectors lead the bull market<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The 500 stocks in the S&P 500 can be divided into eleven different market sectors. ETFs are available for trading in each of these market sectors. The sector ETFs also play an important role in the technical analysis of the equity markets and in intermarket analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2024 (YTD), all eleven market sectors are in positive territory. The offensive and cyclical market sectors such as Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Technology (XLK), Communication Services (XLC) and Finance (XLF) show the strongest performance and have outperformed the S&P 500. The defensive sectors such as Consumer Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Health Care (XLV) and Real Estate (XLRE) are also all up on an annual basis, but show relative weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Table
Sector ETFs of the S&P 500<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The relative strength of offensive sectors and the relative weakness of defensive sectors are clear signs of optimism and risk appetite among investors and usually go hand in hand with an overall rising stock market. Trend reversals in the S&P 500 are often heralded early on by a sector rotation (out of the offensive sectors and into the defensive sectors). At present, however, the offensive sectors continue to outperform, regardless of the period under review (YTD, 3 months, 1 month). Corrections in the S&P 500 can therefore generally be seen as opportunities for positioning in the direction of the overriding uptrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market breadth weak in the short term<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

An analysis of the most important broad market indicators also shows a positive and trend-confirming development in the long-term picture. Although shares with a high market capitalization (keyword: Magnificent 7) continue to lead the way, the broad market is also generally participating in the upward trend, as can be seen from the fact that the majority of all shares are in an upward trend and are generating new highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the short term, however, the analysis of market breadth shows some clear signs of weakness that should not be ignored. If market breadth remains weak, the probability of a continuation of the correction is high, at least as long as no new bullish signals emerge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Advance Decline Line fell below the two correction lows from November. If last week's short-term low (zone marked in green) is also undercut, this would be a short-term bearish signal for the S&P 500.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Chart
Advance-Decline-Line<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A look at the number of shares with new 52-week highs and 52-week lows on the New York Stock Exchange also clearly shows that the picture has clouded over in the short term. The new highs have recently declined significantly and the new lows have risen sharply. Last Friday, a total of 121 shares generated a new 52-week low and only 24 shares were able to rise to a new 52-week high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
Number of stocks (NYSE) with new 52-week highs (green) and new 52-week lows (red)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In a bull market, weak market breadth is often a sign that the market is oversold and can therefore be seen as a contra-indicator. However, as long as the market breadth does not show renewed signs of strength, the risk of a continuation of the correction remains. For new long positions, it is therefore advisable to wait for new bullish signals to emerge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author: Tobias Schmid<\/a>
Date: 30.12.2024<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Liebe Trader, liebe B\u00f6rsenfreunde. Der S&P 500 ist seit Beginn des Jahres 25,2 % angestiegen. Seit dem Beginn des Bullenmarktes im Oktober 2023 betr\u00e4gt das Plus sogar rund 45 %. Zwischen Januar und November 2024 gab es nur zwei Monate mit einer negativen Performance. Neun Mal erzielte der S&P 500 ein positives Monatsergebnis. Im Dezember […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":57665,"template":"","analysen-kategorie":[849,860],"class_list":["post-57667","analyse","type-analyse","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","analysen-kategorie-index","analysen-kategorie-sp-500-2"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse\/57667","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/analyse"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/57665"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57667"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"analysen-kategorie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analysen-kategorie?post=57667"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}