{"id":57828,"date":"2025-01-06T09:02:11","date_gmt":"2025-01-06T08:02:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=57828"},"modified":"2025-01-06T09:02:12","modified_gmt":"2025-01-06T08:02:12","slug":"dax-forecast-and-analysis-with-tailwind-into-the-new-year","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/dax-prognose-und-analyse-mit-rueckenwind-ins-neue-jahr\/","title":{"rendered":"DAX forecast and analysis: A tailwind into the new year"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With a performance of 18.8% in 2024 and 20.3% in 2023, the DAX has delivered a remarkable performance over the past two years. The German benchmark index is on an impeccable long-term upward trend, despite a weakening domestic economy. At the start of the new year, many investors are wondering how long the current trend will continue and whether a trend reversal or an extended correction phase is overdue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No signs of weakness<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the above-average strength of the last two years, there are currently no signs of weakness in the DAX. Both fundamentally and technically, the signs are still green. In line with the law of inertia, we should expect the positive trend to continue until new external factors emerge that could change the direction of the trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fears of a sudden, unexpected trend reversal or a sudden crash are also usually unfounded. If a bear market or a trend reversal of the primary (long-term) upward trend is imminent, this does not usually happen overnight, but takes a few weeks to a few months. During such a top formation, there are usually clear technical warning signals, such as selling under heavy volume. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A trend reversal also requires a chart-based trend break or a counter-signal on the trend size of the primary trend. The following weekly chart shows the movement and correction phases of the long-term upward trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Line
DAX Index weekly chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As you can see, the DAX is in a clear uptrend, recognizable by the sequence of rising highs and rising lows. Although the current movement phase is already well advanced and the DAX has bounced off the upper trend channel line, the most recent downward movement merely represents the possible start of a correction. As long as the last correction low of around 17,000 points - 17,661 points on a weekly closing price basis - is not undercut, the upward trend remains unbroken from a technical market perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The next important support zones visible on the weekly chart are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n