The Nasdaq 100 ended the trading week on Friday with a score of 20,848, down 2.24 % on the previous week. Despite the correction, which has been ongoing for a month now, the index is only just under 6% below its all-time high of December 16 and sustained bearish momentum has not yet developed. Last week, economic and labor market data were the main triggers for renewed selling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Inflation vs growth<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The ISM Purchasing Managers' Index for service providers was published last Tuesday. The data was better than expected, which on the one hand was seen as a signal of robust economic activity in the service sector. On the other hand, continued strong economic data also means a possible rise in inflationary pressure. The consequence would be a more hawkish monetary policy on the part of the Fed, i.e. a slower pace of planned interest rate cuts or, if inflation does indeed return stronger and faster than expected, stagnating or even rising key interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The inflation expectations of US consumers surveyed by the University of Michigan, which were also published on Tuesday, also turned out to be somewhat hotter than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Very strong labor market data<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The US labor market report (Non Farm Payrolls) was published on Friday. In December, 256,000 new jobs were created. This figure was well above the consensus forecast of 164,000. In addition, the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The most important economic and labor market data from last week thus point to an economy that remains very robust and a very robust labor market. Although this news is fundamentally positive for the stock market, it also increases inflationary pressure. As long as inflation only rises moderately, the stock market should be able to digest this well. Nevertheless, higher inflation expectations are currently a negative factor that has led to selling pressure. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Focus on producer and consumer prices: potential for relief rally<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Producer prices and consumer prices will be published this week. If the situation eases here, the chances of a relief rally are very good, as a lot of pessimism is already priced in and the Nasdaq 100 fell only moderately despite the hot economic and labor market data. However, if the strong data continues, the stock markets and thus also the Nasdaq 100 could come under further pressure and the correction could widen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Chart support in the Nasdaq 100<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Compared to the other three major US indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones, Russell 2000), the correction in the Nasdaq 100 has been rather moderate. The weekly chart below shows that the index is still trading above the weekly EMA 20. This is currently at around 20,600 points. The upper zone marked in green at 20,400 - 20,600 points thus forms the first important support area. In addition to the weekly EMA-20, the last local high point of the primary upward trend is located here.<\/p>\n\n\n\nNasdaq 100 Wochenchart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
If this support zone does not hold, the probability increases that the Nasdaq 100 will initially continue its correction. The next important support area is located in the range of 19,800 - 19,900 points. This is also formed by a horizontal support in combination with the long-term upward trend line, the weekly EMA 50 and the daily EMA 200.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"Stock](\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-12-Nasdaq-100-Wochenchart-1024x601.png\")