{"id":58589,"date":"2025-02-17T09:19:29","date_gmt":"2025-02-17T08:19:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&#038;p=58589"},"modified":"2025-02-17T09:19:30","modified_gmt":"2025-02-17T08:19:30","slug":"dow-jones-up-despite-hot-inflation-data","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/dow-jones-im-plus-trotz-heisser-inflationsdaten\/","title":{"rendered":"Dow Jones up despite hot inflation data"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dear trader, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The mood on the stock markets remains positive. The Dow Jones gained 0.6% in the past trading week. Although this is slightly less than the S&amp;P 500 (+1.5%) and the Nasdaq 100 (+2.6%), the Dow has already shown relative strength in recent weeks and is up 4.7% year-to-date, putting it ahead of the S&amp;P 500 in terms of YTD performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Consumer and producer prices signal increased inflation<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Last week, both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for January 2025 were published in the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The CPI rose by 0.5 % in January compared to the previous month, resulting in an annual inflation rate of 3.0 %. This increase was largely influenced by higher food costs and rising prices for petrol and rents.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Producer prices increased by 0.4 % in January compared to the previous month, which corresponds to an annual rate of 3.5 %.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This means that both indicators were above the market's consensus expectations, which points to persistent inflationary pressure and could therefore represent a headwind for the equity market, as a high inflation rate implies higher interest rates or fewer interest rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to the FedWatch tool of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/stock-exchange-2\/dividend-custody-account\/cme-group\/\" data-type=\"analysen-kategorie\" data-id=\"1088\">CME Group<\/a> only one interest rate cut is currently expected in the current year. In response to the hotter inflation data, yields on US government bonds rose and the Dow Jones briefly came under pressure. However, the negative sentiment only lasted for a short time and there was a turnaround on Wednesday evening after the publication of consumer prices, followed by further price rises on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fears of a sustained rise in inflation appear to be of little concern to the market, at least at present. In addition to the CPI and the PPI, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index), which measures price changes for consumer goods and services of households, is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. The PCE index for January will be published on February 28 and is sure to attract a great deal of attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Tariff dispute eased<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another issue that has caused uncertainty on the stock markets in recent weeks has been the fear of new tariffs from the US government. Although new tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminum were recently introduced on the grounds that the steel industry is essential for domestic security, Donald Trump announced on Thursday that further tariffs would not be introduced across the board, but only where US tariffs are currently lower than those of its trading partners. Trump also emphasized that the USA is ready for negotiations. This removes another factor of uncertainty, which could give the stock markets a tailwind in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Dow fails to reach all-time high<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In chart terms, the long-term picture has changed little recently. After the Dow Jones reached its last all-time high at the beginning of December, a correction followed that lasted until January 10. The subsequent rally led to an increase of around 7.5% to the level of the all-time high of around 45,000 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 45,000-point mark currently represents resistance, which the Dow Jones has bounced off in recent weeks. A sustained breakout above this resistance would generate the next important long signal. A downward movement in the next few days or weeks would be interpreted as a correction within the primary upward trend and would again open up the opportunity for a long position out of the correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"601\" src=\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-17-Dow-Jones-Tageschart-1024x601.png\" alt=\"Stock chart showing trend lines, moving averages and volume for an index from mid-2022 to early 2023, with frequent fluctuations and upward trends towards the end of the period.\" class=\"wp-image-58588\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-17-Dow-Jones-Tageschart-1024x601.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-17-Dow-Jones-Tageschart-300x176.png 300w, https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-17-Dow-Jones-Tageschart-768x451.png 768w, https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-17-Dow-Jones-Tageschart-1536x902.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-17-Dow-Jones-Tageschart-18x12.png 18w, https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-17-Dow-Jones-Tageschart.png 1565w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Dow Jones Index daily chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Author: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fomo-finance.com\/about\/tobias-schmid\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Tobias Schmid<\/a><br>Date: 17.02.2025<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lieber Trader, liebe B\u00f6rsenfreunde. Die Stimmung an den Aktienm\u00e4rkten bleibt weiterhin positiv. Der Dow Jones konnte in der vergangenen Handelswoche 0,6 Prozent zulegen. Das ist zwar etwas weniger als der S&amp;P 500 (+1,5 Prozent) und der Nasdaq 100 (+2,6 Prozent); allerdings zeigte der Dow bereits in den letzten Wochen relative St\u00e4rke und ist seit Jahresbeginn [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":58588,"template":"","analysen-kategorie":[857,849],"class_list":["post-58589","analyse","type-analyse","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","analysen-kategorie-dow-jones","analysen-kategorie-index"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse\/58589","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/analyse"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/58588"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"analysen-kategorie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analysen-kategorie?post=58589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}