{"id":59062,"date":"2025-03-10T08:43:05","date_gmt":"2025-03-10T07:43:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=59062"},"modified":"2025-03-10T08:43:07","modified_gmt":"2025-03-10T07:43:07","slug":"trade-dispute-causes-slump-in-nasdaq-100","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/handelsstreit-sorgt-fuer-einbruch-im-nasdaq-100\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade dispute causes slump in the Nasdaq 100"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the past trading week, the US stock markets came under pressure across the board. The Nasdaq 100 ended the week down 3.3% and is now trading around 9% below its all-time highs from February. The reason for the downward pressure in recent days was concerns about the negative impact of US trade policy, as well as the risk of an economic slowdown and a rise in unemployment. However, there were also signs of easing over the course of the week. The exciting question for the coming days and weeks is: did we just see a temporary correction within the overarching upward trend? Or are we seeing signs of a trend reversal that could lead to further price falls?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chaotic US trade policy causes uncertainty<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last weekend, the US administration was still showing signs of easing tensions regarding the introduction of new tariffs. On Monday, Donald Trump then unceremoniously and almost incidentally announced that new tariffs of 25% would be introduced on goods from Canada and Mexico from Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq 100 and the other major US share indices, which had all started the new trading week on a positive note, then immediately turned downwards on Monday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Between Wednesday and Friday, headlines again made the rounds that Mexico and Canada were in direct negotiations with the Trump administration and that some of the newly announced tariffs had already been taken off the table or at least postponed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As he did during his first term in office, Donald Trump is currently using tariffs as political leverage. The markets are still hoping that agreements will be reached soon and that new tariffs will not be introduced permanently. However, it remains to be seen whether this strategy will be successful again. It is also possible that the loss of confidence is already so great that a recovery will not happen as quickly this time as in 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Line
S&P 500: 2017 vs 2025 (source: x.com)
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Labor market data in line with expectations<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Following the publication of weak labour market data the previous week and the weaker-than-expected ADP data on Wednesday last week, there were fears that the Non-Farm Payrolls on 7 March could also signal a significant slowdown in the labour market. With 151,000 new non-farm jobs created, estimates were missed slightly, but all in all the figures were roughly in line with expectations and dispelled concerns about a significant slowdown in the labor market for the time being. However, there was no real relief rally following the labor market data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long-term upward trend in the Nasdaq 100<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The following weekly chart shows that the long-term upward trend of the Nasdaq 100 is unbroken. A sequence of rising highs and rising lows can be clearly seen. Although the most recent correction led to a fall below the horizontal support zone at around 20,400 points, the upward trend line and the weekly EMA 50 (green) were defended. The combination of the upward trend line and the weekly EMA 50 was also an important technical support level in October 2023 and August 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Candlestick
Nasdaq 100 Index Wochenchart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The weekly EMA 50 is often at about the same price level as the daily EMA 200. As you can see on the daily chart below, the daily EMA 200 (red) was undercut on Thursday, but on Friday there was a countermovement and the closing price was above the important moving average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
Nasdaq 100 Index daily chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

For the technical chart picture to brighten up again, at least one rise above the important price zone at 20,400 points is necessary. The daily EMA 20 and 50 could also provide short-term resistance. Should the Nasdaq 100 fall below the EMA 200 again, further selling would be likely. As the price trend has been strongly driven by political news in recent days, renewed headlines regarding the trade dispute are likely to remain in focus in the coming days and weeks. In addition, important inflation data will be published this week (consumer price index and producer price index), which could also cause volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author: Tobias Schmid<\/a>
Date: 10.03.2025
<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Liebe Trader, liebe B\u00f6rsenfreunde. In der vergangenen Handelswoche gerieten die amerikanischen Aktienm\u00e4rkte auf breiter Front unter Druck. Der Nasdaq 100 beendete die Woche mit einem Minus von 3,3 Prozent und notiert mittlerweile rund 9 Prozent unter den Allzeithochs vom Februar. Grund f\u00fcr den Abgabedruck der letzten Tage waren Sorgen vor negativen Auswirkungen der US-Handelspolitik, sowie […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":59061,"template":"","analysen-kategorie":[849,858],"class_list":["post-59062","analyse","type-analyse","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","analysen-kategorie-index","analysen-kategorie-nasdaq-100"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse\/59062","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/analyse"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59061"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=59062"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"analysen-kategorie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analysen-kategorie?post=59062"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}