{"id":59412,"date":"2025-03-31T08:00:31","date_gmt":"2025-03-31T06:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=59412"},"modified":"2025-03-31T08:00:32","modified_gmt":"2025-03-31T06:00:32","slug":"car-cells-weigh-on-dax","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/auto-zoelle-belasten-dax\/","title":{"rendered":"Car tariffs weigh on DAX"},"content":{"rendered":"
After a cautiously optimistic start to the week, the German stock market came under downward pressure in the second half of last week's trading. This was triggered by the US import tariffs of 25 percent on cars and car parts announced on Wednesday. Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz shares in particular suffered losses as a result. The DAX ended the week down 1.92%, but is still in an intact upward trend and is currently merely consolidating at a high level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Decisive week in the trade dispute<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
At the beginning of last week, there were initial reports suggesting that trade representatives from various countries were in negotiations with the US to mitigate the impact of the announced tariffs. Specifically, there was speculation that the reciprocal tariffs planned by Trump, which are due to come into force on April 2, could possibly be less severe than originally feared. This news was partly driven by the hope that countries with high trade surpluses with the US could avert higher tariffs by making concessions, such as importing more US goods (e.g. oil, gas or military equipment). US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said that bilateral deals could reduce the tariff burden. At times, this news led to a noticeable easing on the markets, as investors hoped for a de-escalation in the trade dispute. However, the details remained vague and uncertainty persisted as Trump simultaneously emphasized that he wanted to consistently implement his \"America First\" policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The announcement of new import tariffs of 25% on cars and components on Wednesday evening then put a further significant damper on sentiment. As a result, both the US markets and the DAX came under pressure on Thursday and Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding the tariffs announced for April 2. Concrete details are expected this week. Both the announcement that agreements have been reached and that the tariffs will be milder than feared, as well as an escalation and the entry into force of tougher and more far-reaching tariffs seem possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is a high probability that the DAX will either come under pressure again this week or start a relief rally, depending on the details of the tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, it should also be noted that uncertainty is often a greater negative factor for the stock markets than the negative news itself. The hope remains that the trade dispute and the customs issue will fade into the background after this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
DAX consolidates sideways<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
As you can see on the following weekly chart, the strong rise in January and February has led to the DAX now trading at an overbought level. On the one hand, this can be seen in the weekly RSI, which is in the overbought area. On the other hand, the DAX has moved very far away from the weekly EMA 20. A correction to the EMA 20 in the region of around 21,500 would therefore not be unusual and would merely represent a normal correction within the long-term upward trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\nDAX Index weekly chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
However, the DAX is still holding steady and is consolidating sideways at a high level. The daily chart below shows that the short-term support at around 22,300 points has already been tested several times. A break below this horizontal support, including the daily EMA 50 (green), would open up further potential for a correction. The first correction target would be the 21,500-point mark (weekly EMA-20). Beyond that, the next correction target would be 20,500 points in the area of the daily EMA-200, where there is also horizontal support from the last all-time high in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\nDAX Index daily chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Which path the DAX decides to take still seems uncertain at present and is likely to depend to a large extent on the US government's further course of action in the trade dispute. As mentioned above, it is to be hoped that there will be a little more clarity here as the week progresses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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