{"id":60013,"date":"2025-05-12T11:14:23","date_gmt":"2025-05-12T09:14:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=60013"},"modified":"2025-05-12T11:14:24","modified_gmt":"2025-05-12T09:14:24","slug":"dow-jones-on-hold-ahead-of-trade-talks","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/dow-jones-in-wartestellung-vor-handelsgespraechen\/","title":{"rendered":"Dow Jones on hold ahead of trade talks"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear trader, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Dow Jones has already risen 14 % since the low on April 7. However, the index barely moved last week. The stock markets were apparently still in a wait-and-see mode and wanted to await the results of the trade talks between the USA and China on May 11 and 12 in Geneva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agreement in the trade dispute already priced in?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Over the past four weeks, we have seen an impressive rally on the international stock markets. The fear of long-lasting negative implications due to the previously announced tariffs already seems to be water under the bridge again. Instead, the market's reaction allows only one conclusion to be drawn: the tariffs are expected to be abolished relatively quickly or at least significantly reduced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Details of trade deal between USA and China expected<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

After a number of trade deals were announced in recent days and weeks, the fronts between China and the US seemed to have hardened, at least in the media. However, it can be assumed that talks have already taken place behind closed doors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The announcement that direct talks between US Secretary of State Scott Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Chinese Vice Premier and Chief Negotiator for Economic Affairs He Lifeng are to take place in Geneva this weekend (May 11 and 12) once again created a positive mood among investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dow Jones overbought in the short term<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the Dow Jones is already at an overbought level due to the strong upward movement of the last four weeks. On the one hand, a further de-escalation in the trade dispute has already been largely priced in, while on the other it is not yet clear on Monday morning what exactly has been agreed. Although an agreement has been reported, details are not expected to be announced until later today. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If there is a \"real\" deal that leads to the tariffs being lifted as far as possible, this should give the Dow Jones another short-term boost. However, it is also conceivable that the tariffs will be lowered but still remain at a high level and it is reported that there will be further talks. For example, Donald Trump had previously stated that a reduction in tariffs to 80 % was conceivable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Decisive resistance at 42,000 points<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

More important than the question of what the outcome of the negotiations will be is the question of how the markets will react. Despite the strong rise of the last four weeks, the Dow Jones has not yet been able to overcome either the daily EMA-200 or the daily SMA-200. For the technical picture to brighten further, these important resistances must first be recaptured. If this is successful, there would be room to rise to the level of the old all-time highs at around 45,000 points. A drop below the support zone at 40,600 - 40,800 points, on the other hand, would suggest that the bears could take over again in the short term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the daily chart of the Dow Jones Index, you can see that the EMA 200 (red continuous line) is a few points below the round 42,000-point mark; the SMA 200 is currently at 42,236 points. The resistance zone is reinforced by a number of horizontal lows in recent months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
Dow Jones daily chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The weekly chart also illustrates the relevance of the short zone at 42,000 points. This is where the weekly closing prices from October 2024 and January 2025 are located, which formed the double top before the downward breakout in March and April. If this resistance is broken through bullishly, this would also represent a rise above all important weekly EMAs and signal a long-term upward trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
Dow Jones weekly chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Author: Tobias Schmid<\/a>
Date: 12.05.2025<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lieber Trader, liebe B\u00f6rsenfreunde. Der Dow Jones konnte seit dem Tief am 7. April bereits wieder 14 % ansteigen. In der vergangenen Woche bewegte sich der Index allerdings kaum vom Fleck. Die Aktienm\u00e4rkte befanden sich offenbar noch in Wartestellung und wollten die Ergebnisse der Handelsgespr\u00e4che zwischen den USA und China am 11. und 12. Mai […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":60011,"template":"","analysen-kategorie":[857,849],"class_list":["post-60013","analyse","type-analyse","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","analysen-kategorie-dow-jones","analysen-kategorie-index"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse\/60013","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/analyse"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/60011"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60013"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"analysen-kategorie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analysen-kategorie?post=60013"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}