{"id":60355,"date":"2025-06-02T08:17:27","date_gmt":"2025-06-02T06:17:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=60355"},"modified":"2025-06-02T08:17:28","modified_gmt":"2025-06-02T06:17:28","slug":"nasdaq-100-with-strongest-month-since-november-2023","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/nasdaq-100-mit-staerkstem-monat-seit-november-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Nasdaq 100 with strongest month since November 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"
The Nasdaq 100 Index rose by 9.2% in May, its best monthly performance since November 2023. Following the rapid price slump in April, the technical picture has now brightened considerably. The main drivers behind the rally in recent weeks were the de-escalation of the trade dispute, moderate inflationary pressure and strong results from the AI sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Macroeconomic tailwind<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The Nasdaq 100 also recently received a tailwind from the macroeconomic side: the PCE price index (the Fed's preferred inflation indicator) rose by just 0.1 % in April compared to the previous month; over the year as a whole, the rate fell to 2.1 %, its lowest level since the beginning of 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the same time, consumption cooled noticeably (private spending +0.2 %), while real GDP for Q1 only showed -0.2 % annualized in the second estimate, which is a sign that the pull-forward effects due to the threat of \"Trump tariffs\" are fizzling out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nvidia earnings convince<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
After the majority of companies had already published their results in recent weeks in the current earnings season, the focus was on Nvidia in the past trading week. The chip manufacturer published its quarterly figures for the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year, which ended in April, on Wednesday evening after the close of trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nvidia increased its consolidated revenue by USD 69 1TP4 thousand to USD 44.1 billion, thus posting another record quarter. Growth was driven by the Data Center segment, which increased by USD 73 % to USD 39.1 billion. Due to a USD 4.5 billion inventory write-down in connection with the H20 export restrictions, the GAAP gross margin fell to USD 60.5 %; adjusted, it would have amounted to USD 71.3 %. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share amounted to USD 0.81. For Q2, management is forecasting revenues of around USD 45 billion despite an estimated USD 8 billion drop in sales in China. CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that demand for the new \"Blackwell\" generation continues to exceed supply and that Sovereign AI projects are providing additional impetus. The share price reacted with an increase of around 5 % in the post-market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In addition to Nvidia, the focus was on the results of several other companies from the Nasdaq 100, including:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Marvell Technology:<\/strong> The chip manufacturer increased its turnover by 63 % to 1.9 billion $ and achieved slightly higher earnings per share than expected. However, as the management announced more cautious profit margins for the coming months, the share price fell by around 1TP4k after the close of trading.\u00a0 <\/li>\n\n\n\n
Costco:<\/strong> The department store chain generated sales of $ 63.2 billion (+8 %) and earned $ 4.28 per share, slightly exceeding expectations. This confirms that the bulk retail model (buying large quantities at a discount) works well even in expensive times. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
Zscaler:<\/strong> The cyber security provider increased its turnover to $ 678 million (+23 %) and clearly exceeded forecasts with earnings per share of $ 0.84. More importantly, billings - i.e. new invoices written - jumped by % 25m to $ 784m. As a result, the share price rose by more than %.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Open gap at 20,000 - 20,200 points<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The Nasdaq 100 has now clearly overcome the important technical resistance at 20,200 - 20,300 points. There is currently still a gap here. Should increased selling pressure arise again in the coming days or weeks, this price area would therefore represent an important support zone (gap, horizontal support, EMA & SMA 200).<\/p>\n\n\n\nNasdaq 100 Index daily chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Nasdaq 100 with relative strength<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Compared to the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 has again built up relative strength in the last two months. In the following ratio chart, the QQQ is divided by the SPY. From mid-December to the beginning of April, the ratio line trended downwards. On the one hand, this signaled relative weakness in the Nasdaq 100; on the other hand, it was also a signal that the broad market may be coming under pressure. On the other hand, strength in the QQQ compared to the SPY or a rising trend line is a bullish signal for the broad market. You can recognize this with the correlation indicator below the chart. This measures the correlation of the relationship line (QQQ:SPY) with the S&P 500. As you can see, it is in positive territory most of the time, often even above 50 percent. This means that the relative strength of the Nasdaq 100 correlates with a rising S&P 500.<\/p>\n\n\n\nRelation chart: QQQ:SPY<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Conclusion & possible strategies for the current market environment<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The intact upward trend and the open gap at 20,000 - 20,200 points currently favor a classic \"buy the dip\" strategy. In addition, in the current market environment it is certainly a good idea to selectively trade stocks with relative strength. There are also currently attractive opportunities to generate cash flow with option strategies such as the wheel strategy (cash-secured puts and\/or covered calls) or vertical spreads.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"Line](\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/2025-06-02-Nasdaq-100-1024x601.png\")
![\"Line](\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/2025-06-02-QQQ-vs-SPY-1024x601.png\")