{"id":61916,"date":"2025-06-30T09:33:59","date_gmt":"2025-06-30T07:33:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=61916"},"modified":"2025-06-30T09:34:33","modified_gmt":"2025-06-30T07:34:33","slug":"__trashed","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/__trashed\/","title":{"rendered":"New all-time high in the Nasdaq 100"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq-100 continued to soar in the past trading week and closed the week at a new all-time high of 22,534 points. Compared to the previous week, this corresponds to an increase of 3.1 % or 678 points. The main drivers were ongoing AI euphoria around mega-caps such as Nvidia, easing inflationary pressure, which is strengthening interest rate cut fantasies, and surprisingly robust earnings revisions for the second quarter. More than 80 % companies in the index have raised their outlooks, further allaying fears of an earnings recession and triggering fresh institutional inflows into tech stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fundamental tailwind for Nasdaq 100<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Now that the chart signals have been green for weeks, the price rise is receiving increasingly substantial support from the macroeconomic and microeconomic side. Monetary policy, corporate balance sheets and the geopolitical environment all provide arguments that higher valuations are justified and that earnings growth is likely to continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed pivot and declining yields<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The US Federal Reserve left the key interest rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.50 % on June 18. At the same time, the current dot plot shows only two interest rate cuts until the end of 2025, which many investors see as a \"soft pivot\": monetary policy remains supportive without sending out a message of recession. At the same time, yields on ten-year US Treasuries fell by just under 10 basis points to 4.29 % last week, making it much easier to discount future tech cash flows. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moderate price pressure eases valuations<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

With the core PCE rising by just 0.2 % in May and 2.7 % year-on-year, the key US inflation indicator continues to signal only moderate inflationary pressure. The simultaneous decline in the overall PCE to 0.1 % M\/M strengthens the credibility of the Fed's inflation target, while falling real interest rates support valuation multiples, particularly in the high-growth technology segment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mitigated geopolitical and trade policy risks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The global political environment is also brightening: The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran has reduced the immediate fear of escalation in the Middle East, an important sentiment factor for global risk assets. At the same time, the US trade talks with China and its G7 partners are progressing constructively; Washington is hinting at extending the \"Liberation Day\" tariff freeze, which expires on July 9, if sufficient progress is made, or mitigating it through partial agreements. Overall, this reduces the likelihood of abruptly increasing import tariffs and provides planning security for export-oriented tech companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nasdaq 100 breaks out to new high<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As you can see on the following weekly chart, the Nasdaq 100 broke above the February highs last week and reached a new all-time high at the end of the week. The breakout took place under increased volume, which increases the probability that this is a sustained breakout and that the upward trend is likely to continue in the medium term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Candlestick
Nasdaq 100 Wochenchart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Since the low on April 7, the Nasdaq has risen by around 35% in less than two months. A correction or consolidation in the coming weeks should therefore come as no surprise to anyone and would in principle represent an opportunity to jump on the current trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seasonal strength in the Nasdaq 100 in July<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, July is still a seasonally very strong month for the Nasdaq 100. In the last 20 years, the index has risen in July 84% of the time. Seasonal weakness is not expected until late summer (August and September). The current development would therefore also fit very well into the seasonal \"playbook\".<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The Nasdaq 100 has risen in 84 % of all cases over the last 20 years.
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Author: Tobias Schmid<\/a>
Date: 30.06.2025<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Liebe Trader, liebe B\u00f6rsenfreunde. Der Nasdaq-100 setzte seinen H\u00f6henflug in der vergangenen Handelswoche fort und schloss die Woche mit 22.534 Punkten auf einem neuen All-Time-High. Gegen\u00fcber der Vorwoche entspricht das einem Plus von 3,1 % bzw. 678 Punkten. Haupttreiber waren eine anhaltende KI-Euphorie um Mega-Caps wie Nvidia, nachlassender Inflationsdruck, der die Zinssenkungsfantasien st\u00e4rkt, sowie \u00fcberraschend […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":61917,"template":"","analysen-kategorie":[849,858],"class_list":["post-61916","analyse","type-analyse","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","analysen-kategorie-index","analysen-kategorie-nasdaq-100"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse\/61916","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/analyse"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/61917"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61916"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"analysen-kategorie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analysen-kategorie?post=61916"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}