{"id":62843,"date":"2025-08-04T08:40:59","date_gmt":"2025-08-04T06:40:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=62843"},"modified":"2025-08-04T08:41:01","modified_gmt":"2025-08-04T06:41:01","slug":"dow-jones-on-hold-after-labor-market-shock-rate-cut-in-september","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/dow-jones-nach-arbeitsmarktschock-in-wartestellung-zinssenkung-im-september\/","title":{"rendered":"Dow Jones on hold after labor market shock - interest rate cut in September?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear trader, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since bottoming out on April 7, the Dow Jones has gained more than 20 % in recent weeks and approached its all-time high of around 45,000 points in the second half of July. In the past trading week, however, the index came under noticeable pressure: a combination of surprisingly weak US labor market data, new tariff threats and individual disappointing corporate figures led to the sharpest correction since the beginning of April. At times, the Dow fell to a one-month low of around 43,330 points and recorded five consecutive days of losses. On a weekly basis, this meant a drop of around 3 %, which put the brakes on the recent highs for the time being and postponed the breakout to a new all-time high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Non-farm payrolls disappoint across the board<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The biggest surprise of the week came on Friday with the official US labor market report (Non Farm Payrolls) for the month of July. With only 73,000 new non-farm jobs, job creation remained far below consensus expectations. In addition, the previous months' data was revised downwards significantly: The already weak June data was revised to just 14,000 new jobs and May to 19,000, a combined total of almost 258,000 fewer jobs than previously expected. This represents the lowest monthly employment growth since the start of the pandemic in 2020, with the unemployment rate rising accordingly from 4.1 % to 4.2 %, while the labor force participation rate fell to a two-year low. These figures point to a much sharper slowdown in the US labor market than was assumed just a few weeks ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Immediately following the publication of the NFP data, the markets reacted sharply: bonds and interest rate-dependent assets rose, while the US dollar came under pressure to fall. A weaker labor market is fueling hopes that the Fed will now take countermeasures sooner and loosen the monetary reins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interest rate cut within reach<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In fact, market expectations for a rate cut in September shot up immediately after the publication of the non-farm payrolls. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the implied probability of a first rate cut at the Fed meeting on September 17 is now over 80 % (previously around 45 %). In other words, the markets firmly expect the Fed to cut interest rates in just over six weeks in view of the significant slowdown in the labor market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Bar
The CME FedWatch Tool signals an 80 percent probability of a rate cut in September<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A few days earlier, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had struck a rather cautious tone at the July meeting. The key interest rate was left at 4.25 - 4.50 % for the time being, and Powell emphasized that further data would be awaited. In particular, the persistently high inflation (most recently around 2.5 % and driven by Trump's import tariffs) led to a wait-and-see attitude. In addition to the weak labor market data, President Donald Trump has once again spoken out loudly in recent days and called for immediate interest rate cuts. In the coming weeks, the focus is likely to be on further labour market data and the July inflation data, which will be decisive for a possible interest rate hike in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chart technology: all-time high postponed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

From a technical perspective, the Dow Jones has failed for the time being at a well-known resistance level of around 45,000 points. This zone marks the previous all-time high and had already led to a price reversal in December 2024 and February 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Line
Dow Jones Index weekly chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It is therefore unsurprising that without any new positive impetus, the air upwards initially became thin. The result was a rapid correction back to the lower 43,000 range, where the first important support level is now being tested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the positive side, the Dow is still trading above its long-term trend indicators despite the setback: both the 200-day line (SMA) and the 200-day EMA are in the 42,000 - 42,500 point range and could serve as further technical support if the 43,000 point mark fails to hold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the short term, the market is somewhat oversold due to the five days of losses, which could favor a technical countermovement. In the medium term, however, a somewhat more extended correction or a sideways consolidation in August and September would also fit in well with the seasonal picture and would be a healthy breather for the stock market due to the strong rally in recent weeks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Bar
The strong July was followed by two seasonally weak months for the Dow Jones in August and September<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The long-term upward trend is unbroken. In addition, we have seen such clear bullish signals in recent weeks that a potential correction during the summer months would primarily represent an opportunity to build up new long positions at somewhat more favorable prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author: Tobias Schmid<\/a>
Date: 04.08.2025<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lieber Trader, liebe B\u00f6rsenfreunde. Seit dem Tiefpunkt am 7. April legte der Dow Jones in den letzten Wochen mehr als 20 % zu und n\u00e4herte sich in der zweiten Juli-H\u00e4lfte seinem Allzeithoch bei rund 45.000 Punkten. In der vergangenen Handelswoche geriet der Index jedoch sp\u00fcrbar unter Druck: Eine Kombination aus \u00fcberraschend schwachen US-Arbeitsmarktdaten, neuen Zollandrohungen […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":62844,"template":"","analysen-kategorie":[857,849],"class_list":["post-62843","analyse","type-analyse","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","analysen-kategorie-dow-jones","analysen-kategorie-index"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse\/62843","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/analyse"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62844"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62843"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"analysen-kategorie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analysen-kategorie?post=62843"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}