![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2025-08-18-DAX-Wochenchart-1024x660.png\")
After such a strong upward movement (April and May), a somewhat longer-lasting consolidation is not unusual and \"healthy\" for the long-term trend. The declining volatility can also be seen in the tightening or contracting Bollinger Bands. In addition, you can see in the chart below with the Bollinger bandwidth indicator that the bandwidth is at a very low level in the long term. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Typically, phases of low volatility on the stock market are inevitably followed by phases of high volatility. The Bollinger Bands are a very good indicator to visualize this. As soon as a breakout occurs above one of the bands and both bands open again, the probability of a renewed rally would be high. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alternatively, in the event of a renewed price decline, it would make sense to build up long positions in the area of the chart support levels and speculate on a breakout on the upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n An important support for the markets is currently the prospect of an imminent easing of monetary policy, especially in the US. Although producer prices in the US were much hotter than expected last Thursday, other important inflation data such as US consumer prices were in line with expectations, meaning that the Fed is highly likely to cut interest rates in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent fueled this speculation with the statement that there is a \"good chance\" of a significant interest rate cut of 50 basis points. However, the futures markets are still pricing in an interest rate cut of 25 basis points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In Europe, the ECB has already cut interest rates several times since 2024, most recently by 25 basis points on June 5. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Whether and how many further cuts will follow depends on the data: Eurozone inflation stood at 2.0 % in July, in Germany at 2.0 % (CPI) and 1.8 % (HICP), i.e. close to the target. Based on the futures markets and surveys among economists, the probability of a further interest rate hike by the end of the year is currently high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, we must not lose sight of the economic situation in Europe. The eurozone economy is cooling, especially in Germany. German GDP contracted by 0.1 % in the second quarter of 2025 after a one-off effect in Q1 (US exports brought forward due to tariff fears) fizzled out. Although consumption and government spending rose slightly, corporate investment declined. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The latest sentiment indicators paint a more positive picture overall. The ifo Business Climate Index has risen for several months in a row and reached 88.6 points in July, its highest level since May 2024. Both the assessment of the current situation and expectations have improved, which points to a gradual stabilization of the German economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The ZEW Index of Economic Sentiment is also clearly in positive territory, signaling that analysts and institutional investors are expecting better development in the second half of the year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In contrast, the GfK consumer climate remains subdued: Many households are holding back on major purchases, which shows that the buying mood has not yet returned on a sustained basis despite falling inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2025-08-18-DAX-Tageschart-1024x662.png\")
Interest rate cut fantasy in the USA boosts stock markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
GDP in Germany shrinks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Sentiment indicators signal brightening<\/h2>\n\n\n\n