![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/2025-09-15-DAX-Index-Wochenchart-1-1024x718.png\")
Both price areas mentioned are currently reinforced by the weekly Bollinger Bands. A breakout above the resistance or below the support would therefore simultaneously represent a breakout above or below one of the weekly Bollinger bands and increase the probability that further momentum will follow. The tightening of the bands (squeeze) currently signals a phase of declining volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The longer this phase lasts and the closer the bands converge, the more likely it is that the subsequent breakout will be a sustained move. (Phases of high volatility usually alternate with phases of low volatility).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the event of a breakout on the downside, however, it should be noted that the next important support level is waiting at around 22,700 points: The daily EMA 200 (red thick line) as well as the daily SMA 200 (red thin line).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Inflation has largely normalized in the eurozone: In August, the annual inflation rate was 2.1 %, practically at the ECB's target value (after 2.0 % in July). However, core inflation (excluding energy and food) remains slightly higher at 2.3 %. The figures confirm the disinflationary trend, which was boosted by falling energy prices and declining goods price inflation, while services and food are still showing higher inflation in some cases. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In the coming months, economists expect inflation to remain around the 2 % mark before even a further decline in inflation appears possible in 2026. Accordingly, most market participants expect the ECB's key interest rates to remain stable or fall slightly in the near future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At the same time, the economy in Germany and Europe has cooled noticeably. The German economy has effectively been in the doldrums since the end of 2022: after minimal growth in 2023\/24, GDP growth of only +0.1 to +0.2 % is forecast for 2025. Leading institutes (ifo, IfW) have recently lowered their growth forecasts further. The reasons they cite include the weak industrial economy, sluggish exports and negative framework conditions such as US trade policy. The ifo Institute explicitly points to the ongoing US tariffs as a negative factor for the export-oriented German economy. Despite a recent agreement in the trade dispute with the US government, many punitive tariffs remain in place and are slowing down German exports to the US in particular. In addition, there is also a lack of new demand stimuli in Germany and there is a threat of another year of stagnation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sentiment indicators such as the Purchasing Managers' Index are just above 50 points, which hardly signals any growth (the HCOB Composite PMI stood at 50.9 in July). Although there was a slight improvement in industrial activity in the eurozone in August, sentiment remained subdued, particularly in Germany. There are also cautious signs of a slowdown on the labor market, such as rising unemployment figures in some countries. On a positive note, consumers' real incomes are rising again thanks to the fall in inflation, thus providing some support for private consumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The picture in the USA is similar: Although the inflation rate has risen slightly month-on-month (+0.4 % compared to the previous month), on an annualized basis it stands at 2.9 % and is therefore at a moderate level overall. At the same time, the latest labor market data points to a slowdown: The number of initial jobless claims jumped surprisingly sharply to 263,000 at the beginning of September, the highest level since 2021. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The weak jobs data is seen by the market as an indicator that both the US economy and the labor market are losing momentum. Paradoxically, this is good news for the stock market, as a weakening labor market increases the likelihood of interest rate cuts. The Fed is expected to make three interest rate cuts by the end of the year, which should give both the US and European share indices a further tailwind, at least as long as there is no real recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/2025-09-15-DAX-Index-Tageschart-1-1024x721.png\")
Inflation in Europe at target level<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
European economy cools down<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Hope for tailwind from the USA<\/h2>\n\n\n\n