{"id":63961,"date":"2025-10-01T12:30:11","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T10:30:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&#038;p=63961"},"modified":"2025-10-10T13:18:08","modified_gmt":"2025-10-10T11:18:08","slug":"long-put-reaction-to-shutdown-risks-in-the-usa-and-monetary-policy-question-marks","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/long-put-reaktion-auf-shutdown-risiken-in-den-usa-und-geldpolitische-fragezeichen\/","title":{"rendered":"Long put: Reaction to shutdown risks in the USA and monetary policy question marks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The current politically fragile situation in the US, coupled with the government shutdown, is likely to have increased uncertainty on the markets. In addition to delayed economic data or possible downgrades of US credit ratings, uncertainty could remain high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A so-called \u201e<a href=\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/glossary\/long-put\/\">Long Put\u201c<\/a> offers investors the opportunity to hedge against potential price falls in their holdings (underlying) or - if they do not own the underlying - to speculate specifically on falling prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Definition of a \u201elong put\u201c<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A \u201elong put\u201c is the purchase of a put option. The option buyer acquires the right to sell a certain underlying asset at a fixed price (strike price) - either on a fixed date (for European options) or at any time up to the expiry date (for US options).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Maximum loss and profit<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The maximum loss when buying a \u201elong put\u201c occurs when the price of the underlying asset is above the strike price of the option. In this case, the option would expire without value and the buyer loses the option premium paid at the beginning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The actual profit results from the difference between the strike price of the put option and the price of the underlying on the expiry date, minus the option premium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average Index<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"750\" src=\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Long-Put-Bild-1-1024x750.png\" alt=\"Line chart showing the continuous rise of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index from 2018 to 2025 until it reaches 46,483 points in October 2025.\" class=\"wp-image-63958\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Long-Put-Bild-1-1024x750.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Long-Put-Bild-1-300x220.png 300w, https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Long-Put-Bild-1-768x562.png 768w, https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Long-Put-Bild-1-1536x1125.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Long-Put-Bild-1-16x12.png 16w, https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Long-Put-Bild-1.png 1628w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: TradingView<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u201eGovernment shutdown\u201c in the USA - uncertainty about effects likely to persist<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the United States, the US government remains at a standstill for the time being. On Tuesday (30.09.2025), the last day of September, Republicans and Democrats were unable to reach an agreement on financing the budget. This means that systemically important institutions do not have to close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It remains to be seen how long the standstill in the USA will last.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The longest shutdown to date brought government operations to a virtual standstill for more than five weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A new vote in the US Senate on a provisional agreement in the budget dispute also failed to pass on Wednesday (01.10.2025). A bill must be approved by both chambers so that US President Donald Trump can sign it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Monetary policy question marks in the USA likely to remain<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In addition, US monetary policy is likely to remain one of the key topics of discussion. Investors are still betting that the monetary policy headwinds in the US will continue to ease. In this context, however, the potential for disappointment could remain pronounced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to the CME Group's \u201eFed Watch Tool\u201c, there is a 99% chance of a rate cut at the next scheduled meeting on October 29 (as at October 1, 2025). There is an 86.7% chance that the interest rate band could be in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% as early as December 10 and thus at the final Fed meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite the high probability, however, it remains uncertain whether interest rates will actually be cut on US land.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Summary: \u201eLong put\u201c as a possible strategy in times of heightened uncertainty<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In view of a politically and economically uncertain market environment, such as the US government shutdown and ongoing question marks over the future course of monetary policy in the USA, the \u201elong put\u201c can be a suitable way to hedge against falling prices or to bet on a correction. The maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. However, disciplined risk and capital management remains essential.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Die aktuell politisch fragile Lage in den USA, einhergehend mit dem \u201eGovernment Shutdown\u201c d\u00fcrfte die Unsicherheit an den M\u00e4rkten erh\u00f6ht haben. Neben verz\u00f6gerten Wirtschaftsdaten oder auch m\u00f6glichen Herabstufungen der US-Kreditw\u00fcrdigkeit k\u00f6nnte die Unsicherheit hoch bleiben. Ein sogenannter \u201eLong Put\u201c bietet f\u00fcr Anleger die M\u00f6glichkeit, sich gegen potenzielle Kursr\u00fcckg\u00e4nge ihres Besitzes (Underlying) abzusichern oder \u2013 wenn [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":62286,"template":"","analysen-kategorie":[4631,4597],"class_list":["post-63961","analyse","type-analyse","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","analysen-kategorie-long-put-reaktion-auf-shutdown-risiken","analysen-kategorie-timo-emden-optionen-verstehen"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse\/63961","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/analyse"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/36"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62286"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63961"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"analysen-kategorie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analysen-kategorie?post=63961"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}