On the economic side, the main focus was on the delayed publication of the US labor market report for September. The report was postponed due to the government shutdown. Attention was correspondingly high:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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- The US economy created 119,000 new jobs, more than most economists had expected.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- At the same time, revisions to older data indicate that the labor market has been somewhat weaker in recent months than initially assumed.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
This results in a mixed picture: <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The labor market has cooled noticeably, but remains robust enough to dampen any immediate fears of recession. It is precisely this \u201eneither\u201c that makes it difficult for the US Federal Reserve (Fed). It has to decide whether the interest rate cuts already made in 2025 are sufficient or whether an additional step is necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This constellation means for the Dow:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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- Cyclical stocks and cyclically sensitive sectors look very closely at every new macro figure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- The markets are wavering between hopes of a \u201esoft landing\u201c and concerns that the Fed will remain too restrictive for too long<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Central banker Williams signals possible interest rate cut in December<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The decisive impetus for the strong recovery on Friday came from John Williams, the President of the New York Fed, one of the most influential voices within the central bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a speech, Williams emphasized that monetary policy is currently \u201emoderately restrictive\u201c and that he sees \u201escope for a further adjustment\u201c of the key interest rate towards a neutral level. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Translated that means:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Fed is not only not ruling out a further interest rate cut in December, but is indirectly holding out the prospect of one, provided that upcoming data (especially on the labor market) allows this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As a result, the priced-in probability of an interest rate cut in December rose significantly on the futures markets, from below 40 % to well over 70 %. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"Bar](\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-8-1024x571.png\")
The FedWatch tool currently signals a 71 % probability of a rate cut in December<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n This is a clear positive signal for the Dow. At the same time, however, the Fed remains data-dependent. If the next labor market report signals renewed strength or inflation picks up again, sentiment could turn very quickly, as the strong reversals of the past week have shown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Heavy intraday fluctuations after Nvidia earnings<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Thursday in particular will be remembered by many market participants. After strong quarterly figures and an optimistic outlook from Nvidia, the stock markets started with a sharp jump in share prices. The Dow was up over 700 points at times, the Nasdaq over 2.5 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, the mood changed completely as the day progressed:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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- Concerns that the Fed might not ease further in December increased.
The initial AI euphoria was replaced by valuation fears.<\/li>\n\n\n\n - In the end, the Dow closed around 386 points down: an intraday reversal of over 1,100 points.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
These extreme fluctuations are a clear sign of a market that is highly positioned and nervous. Many investors took advantage of the strength in strongly performing tech and AI stocks to take profits and reduce risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dow defends weekly EMA-20<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Although the correction in the Dow Jones over the last three weeks has been accompanied by numerous headlines suggesting that we could currently see a sharp slump in the stock market, a look at the weekly chart shows that the Dow has so far only corrected to the weekly EMA-20 and successfully defended it last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"Candlestick](\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-7-1024x601.png\")
Dow Jones Index weekly chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Particularly after such a strong price rally as we saw between April and the end of October, a correction of a few percent is no cause for concern, at least in chart terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Last week, the support zone in the area of the weekly EMA-20 and the daily EMA-100 (blue, see below) at 45,700 - 45,800 points was defended. If this support does not hold this week, a continuation of the correction to 45,000 points is likely. This is an important long-term horizontal support level. In addition, the daily EMA-200 and the daily SMA-200 are currently a few points below this support area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-6-1024x601.png\")
Dow Jones Index daily chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n The chances of the Dow stabilizing here are therefore good. However, should this important support also be broken to the downside, the chart picture would become much gloomier and the risk of further price falls would increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- Concerns that the Fed might not ease further in December increased.