{"id":65137,"date":"2026-01-12T08:19:14","date_gmt":"2026-01-12T07:19:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=65137"},"modified":"2026-01-12T08:19:16","modified_gmt":"2026-01-12T07:19:16","slug":"what-does-the-relative-weakness-in-the-nasdaq-100-mean","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/was-bedeutet-die-relative-schwaeche-im-nasdaq-100\/","title":{"rendered":"What does the relative weakness in the Nasdaq 100 mean?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With a rise of 2.2 %, the Nasdaq 100 returned with a bullish statement in the past trading week. While the Dow Jones, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 ended the week at new all-time highs, the technology index is still around 400 points below the highs of last October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nasdaq 100 about to break out of triangle?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

After the rally between April 2025 and the end of October 2025, the Nasdaq 100 formed a consolidation in the form of a symmetrical triangle. After such a strong rally, this is a typical pattern that occurs during a primary uptrend and signals that the index needs a breather. At the same time, a triangle has a very high probability of breaking out in the direction of the overriding trend, usually in the last third of the triangle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Stock
Nasdaq 100 daily chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Nasdaq 100 tackled the downward trend line of the triangle and appears to be trying to break out to the upside. The local highs in the region of 25,800 points could represent short-term resistance. Due to the rising momentum and the bullish signals in all other major US indices, the chances of a breakout and a continuation of the trend are good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Magnificent 7 lagging behind<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In recent weeks, it has become apparent that technology stocks, particularly the Magnificent 7 (all of which are represented in the Nasdaq 100), have at times no longer assumed the clear leadership role. However, the relative weakness of the Nasdaq 100 is less a warning sign of a trend reversal than an indication of a sector rotation: capital has also flowed noticeably into areas such as industrials, materials, value and cyclical segments, which have recently carried the broad market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the medium term, this can even be positive: a rally that is more broadly based often becomes more stable because the dependence on a few mega-caps decreases. For the Nasdaq 100, however, this also means that as long as the Mag-7 does not pick up more strongly again, the index may lag behind the Dow or S&P 500 at times. A real tailwind would only come when the rotation is combined with a pick-up in tech momentum (for example, through convincing quarterly figures and clear AI monetization).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Labor market report without major surprises\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The latest US labor market report (Non-Farm Payrolls) was released on Friday and provided a mixed picture: Reported new jobs rose by 50,000 in December (after a downwardly revised 56,000 in November), slower than expected, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%. At the same time, wage growth remained solid (around 3.8% year-on-year). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the one hand, weaker job growth dampens concerns about excessive demand and tends to support hopes of interest rate cuts later in the year; on the other hand, the lower unemployment rate signals that the labor market is not going to tip abruptly. In the immediate reaction, expectations of interest rate cuts remained fundamentally intact without the market switching to a real risk-off mode. Equities rose, while longer-dated yields tended to fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Supreme Court postpones decision<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Another topic that was at the center of attention on Friday was the Supreme Court's decision on the legality of US tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the Supreme Court has not yet published a ruling. This means that the question of whether the measures will stand remains open for the time being. The court has indicated that further decisions (without prior notice of the cases) are possible from January 14. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is primarily an uncertainty factor for the stock market. Depending on the outcome, a clear decision could change the inflation and margin outlook (tariffs act as a price\/cost factor) and thus indirectly influence interest rate fantasies. In the short term, this means that as long as the outcome remains open, part of the risk premium will remain in the market and increased volatility can be expected around the announcement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Start of the reporting season<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The reporting season for Q4 2025 is imminent and the next few weeks will be a stress test for valuations and expectations for the Nasdaq 100. The focus will be on the major tech and platform stocks as well as semiconductor companies. The most important dates already confirmed include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n