{"id":65579,"date":"2026-02-02T09:02:57","date_gmt":"2026-02-02T08:02:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=65579"},"modified":"2026-02-02T09:02:59","modified_gmt":"2026-02-02T08:02:59","slug":"sector-rotation-in-the-sp-500","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/sektoren-rotation-im-sp-500\/","title":{"rendered":"Sector rotation in the S&P 500\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the S&P 500 rose above the 7,000-point mark for the first time in its history, albeit only briefly in intraday trading. The overarching upward trend remains intact; however, the S&P 500 has yet to stage a significant rally this year and has so far tended to move sideways to moderately upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Massive breakout in the energy sector\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the index gained 1.4 % on balance in January, a look at the performance of the individual market sectors of the S&P 500 reveals a differentiated picture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
YTD performance of the 11 market sectors of the S&P 500<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

With an increase of more than 14 %, the energy sector is by far the strongest sector since the beginning of the year. The leading companies in the energy sector include Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips. The State Street Energy Select Sector with the symbol XLE is suitable for trading and analyzing the entire sector. On the following weekly chart you can see that it recently broke out under very strong volume and rose to new highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
Energy Sector ETF (XLE) weekly chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Another sector that currently deserves attention is consumer staples (symbol: XLP). With a YTD performance of 7.5 %, the sector is also showing clear relative strength. The leading stocks include Walmart, Costco Wholesale, Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From an intermarket analysis perspective, the XLP plays an important role as it is a very defensive sector. The relative strength of defensive stocks usually signals a certain risk aversion on the part of investors and is often a harbinger of a correction or a trend reversal in the broad market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you divide the offensive XLY (non-basic consumer goods or consumer discretionary) by the defensive XLP (basic consumer goods or consumer staples), you get a relationship line that gives a very good indication of the current risk appetite and shows a high correlation with the S&P 500 Index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the following chart you can see this relationship line (XLY:XLP) and in the background with the purple area chart the S&P 500. Below the chart is a correlation indicator that measures the correlation of the relationship line to the S&P 500. As you can see, there is a very high correlation most of the time. This means that when the relationship line rises, this is accompanied by an upward movement of the S&P 500 and when the relationship line falls, this often leads to a downward movement of the S&P 500. The interesting thing here is that the sector rotation often runs ahead of the development of the index. A weakness in the ratio line can therefore be interpreted as a serious warning signal for the broad market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
XLY:XLP Daily chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Although the relationship line has been relatively weak in recent weeks, it is not yet in a clear downward trend. It is currently right on an important support zone. Should this support be breached to the downside in the coming days or weeks, this would be a very important warning signal for the S&P 500.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As far as the other sectors are concerned, however, there is still no clear defensive sector rotation to be seen. The other defensive sectors - namely XLU (utilities) and XLV (health care) - were comparatively weak or neutral in January. As far as the offensive market sectors are concerned, we saw that the highly valued technology stocks came under some pressure, but that traditional industrial stocks can benefit from the increased growth prospects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With an increase of 6.7 % since the beginning of the year, the industrial sector (XLI) is also one of the clear leaders and has completed a nice technical breakout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Candlestick
Industrials-Secor (XLI) weekly chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Seasonality means no major leaps are expected in February<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the seasonal trend, a little caution is still required in the coming weeks. February, together with September, is the weakest month of the year. Over the last 20 years, the S&P 500 has risen only 53 % of the time, with an average performance of -0.1 %. Over the last 10 years, the average performance was -0.6 % and the index rose only 44 % of the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From March\/April into the summer, however, we can expect a very strong seasonal phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Bar
Seasonality S&P 500 last 10 years<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Author: Tobias Schmid<\/a>
Date: 02.02.2026<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Liebe Trader, liebe B\u00f6rsenfreunde. Der S&P 500 stieg letzte Woche erstmals in seiner Geschichte \u00fcber die 7.000-Punkte-Marke an, wenn auch nur kurzfristig im Intraday-Handel. Der \u00fcbergeordnete Aufw\u00e4rtstrend ist weiterhin intakt; eine nennenswerte Rally hat der S&P 500 in diesem Jahr jedoch noch nicht hingelegt und bewegt sich bislang eher seitw\u00e4rts bis moderat aufw\u00e4rts. Energie-Sektor vollzieht […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":65585,"template":"","analysen-kategorie":[849,860],"class_list":["post-65579","analyse","type-analyse","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","analysen-kategorie-index","analysen-kategorie-sp-500-2"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse\/65579","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/analyse"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/65585"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"analysen-kategorie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analysen-kategorie?post=65579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}