{"id":65797,"date":"2026-02-16T08:05:54","date_gmt":"2026-02-16T07:05:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=65797"},"modified":"2026-02-16T08:05:56","modified_gmt":"2026-02-16T07:05:56","slug":"dow-jones-back-below-50-000-correction-as-an-opportunity","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/dow-jones-wieder-unter-50-000-korrektur-als-chance\/","title":{"rendered":"Dow Jones back below 50,000 - correction as an opportunity?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Dow Jones broke above the 50,000-point mark for the first time on February 6, before a correction followed in the past trading week, which led to a weekly decline of 1.2%. Since the beginning of the year, the Dow is up around 3%, signaling relative strength against the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. On the macroeconomic side, the focus last week was on labour market and inflation data in particular.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US labor market stronger than expected<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last Wednesday, the Non-Farm Payrolls for the month of January were published (belatedly). US employment rose by 130,000 jobs, which was significantly more than the consensus expectation. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. \ufffc<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the one hand, a robust labor market supports the \u201esoft landing\u201c narrative; on the other, it reduces the pressure for rapid interest rate cuts, which weighs on the valuation of interest rate-sensitive and highly valued growth segments in particular. \ufffc<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weekly initial applications for unemployment benefit also remained low by historical standards (227,000), while subsequent applications rose slightly (1.862 million). \ufffc<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This continues the picture of a moderately cooling labor market, which does not mean acute stress for the Fed, but is enough to keep the prospect of easing later in the year alive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation cools down<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The second important \u201cmacro event\u201d last week was US consumer prices, which rose by 0.2 % in January on a MOM basis. Annual inflation came in at 2.4 %, both below market expectations and lower than feared. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The initial market reaction was a classic \u201erisk-on\u201c: falling yields and the hope that interest rate cuts would remain realistic over the course of the year. However, the reaction of the Dow and the stock market was rather muted in the end. Although the market is pricing in higher chances of a first cut in the summer, a negative sign remained at the end of the week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strong profit growth continues<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the Q4 reporting season is still in full swing and is certainly providing a fundamental tailwind. According to FactSet, 74% of the S&P 500 companies had reported by February 13. Of these, 74% reported EPS above estimates. In total, earnings were 7.2% above expectations (close to the historical average). \ufffc<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, FactSet's earnings material for Q4 2025 shows a blended earnings growth rate of 13.2% (until then).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There were also important results in the Dow:<\/p>\n\n\n\n