{"id":66504,"date":"2026-04-06T15:42:38","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T13:42:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=66504"},"modified":"2026-04-06T15:42:39","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T13:42:39","slug":"chance-for-the-nasdaq-100-to-form-a-bottom","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/chance-auf-bodenbildung-im-nasdaq-100\/","title":{"rendered":"Chance for bottoming out in the Nasdaq 100"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq 100 managed a rebound last trading week after five consecutive weeks of losses, which was an important signal, especially from a psychological perspective. Although the index is still trading below the important resistance area between 24,000 and 24,200 points, despite an increase of nearly 4 %, hope for a bottoming formation has returned against the backdrop of the chance for de-escalation in the Iran war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hope for the end of the war could lead to a new rally<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains very tense and continues to be the biggest factor of uncertainty for the markets. As long as it is not clear whether a sustainable de-escalation will actually occur, setbacks remain possible at any time. However, at least a diplomatic path is currently emerging: Reuters recently reported on new mediation efforts and a possible two-stage solution with an initial temporary ceasefire followed by negotiations. From a market perspective, this would be the most constructive scenario, as it would reduce immediate escalation pressure and, at the same time, somewhat alleviate concerns about oil supply, inflation, and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A major immediate peace settlement is therefore unlikely at the moment, but rather a limited diplomatic breakthrough: for example, a temporary ceasefire, the gradual reopening of important transport routes, or at least a stable basis for talks between the conflicting parties. In contrast, the scenario of renewed escalation remains significantly more uncertain, for example, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked or new military attacks follow. Precisely because the market has reacted very strongly to every single headline in recent weeks, credible de-escalation would likely be the trigger for another rally in the Nasdaq 100. This is because several factors weighing on the market would simultaneously ease: geopolitical fear, oil price pressure, and interest rate concerns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Relaxation in the bond market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A second important signal came from the bond market last week. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries have fallen, and that's exactly what has helped to provide some calm. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell by more than 10 basis points over the course of the week to around 4.3 %, which is particularly important for technology and growth stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The easing in the bond market was therefore far more than just a positive side effect. It was one of the main reasons why the Nasdaq 100 was able to recover at all. Because in a market phase where investors are constantly weighing geopolitical risks, rising oil prices, and new economic data, falling yields provide some breathing room. They relieve pressure on the market and primarily support technology and growth stocks. Therefore, the focus on the bond market remains crucial in the coming days: As long as yields do not rise significantly again, the Nasdaq 100 has a good chance of continuing its stabilization. On the other hand, if they rise again, the headwinds for growth stocks are likely to return quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Waiting for relative strength breakout<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rebound, the chart technical picture remains weak. Since the beginning of the year, the Nasdaq 100 has been trading nearly 5 % in the red. It has thus performed slightly weaker than the S&P 500, which is also reflected in a falling relative line (QQQ:SPY), as you can see in the following chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Line
QQQ:SPY<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Therefore, in the coming days, it would be important for the bulls not only to see a further rise in the Nasdaq 100, but also a clear breakout in relative strength. On the one hand, this would signal that investors are once again specifically targeting growth and technology stocks. On the other hand, relative strength in the Nasdaq 100 correlates with positive developments in the broader market, as the correlation indicator below the relative chart above shows. This measures the correlation of the relative strength line with the S&P 500.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crucial trading zone in the Nasdaq 100<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The currently decisive price zone for the Nasdaq 100 lies in the area of the daily EMA 200 at around 24,150 points. Precisely there runs the resistance, where it should be decided whether the rebound can become more than just a technical counter-movement. As long as the Nasdaq 100 trades below it, caution is advised. Only a clean breakout above this zone would noticeably brighten the chart picture and increase the probability that a sustainable bottom has actually formed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
Nasdaq 100 daily chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Author: Tobias Schmid
<\/a>Date: 04\/06\/2026<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Liebe Trader, liebe B\u00f6rsenfreunde. Dem Nasdaq 100 ist in der vergangenen Handelswoche nach f\u00fcnf Verlustwochen in Folge ein Rebound gelungen, was insbesondere auch aus psychologischer Sicht ein wichtiges Signal war. Der Index notiert zwar trotz eines Anstiegs von knapp 4 % weiterhin unter dem wichtigen Widerstandsbereich zwischen 24.000 und 24.200 Punkten, doch die Hoffnung auf […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":66507,"template":"","analysen-kategorie":[849,858],"class_list":["post-66504","analyse","type-analyse","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","analysen-kategorie-index","analysen-kategorie-nasdaq-100"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse\/66504","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/analyse"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66507"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66504"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"analysen-kategorie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analysen-kategorie?post=66504"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}