The VIX spot is currently around 21.31. This is neither panic nor complacency \u2013 more like \u201ewe're not sure what happens next.\" The futures curve rises evenly from there: the front month of April trades at 21.45, May at 22.07, June at 22.22, and so on up to November at 23.00. Classic contango \u2013 longer-dated contracts are more expensive than short-term ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Why is this relevant? Because the steepness of the curve tells us something. The contango premiums between individual months are around 2.9 % (Month 1 to 2), then 0.77 % (2 to 3), and continue to flatten. Therefore, the market is not expecting a short-term volatility shock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For anyone trading products like the VXX: The contango structure means that roll yield will continue to cost you money. Every month, expiring, cheaper front-month futures are swapped for more expensive following months \u2013 a structural headwind that is particularly painful in calm times. Those who are long here need a clear plan and tight timing. However, this effect can naturally be exploited by option traders, for example, by shorting the VXX via bear call spreads.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And with that, we come to the topic that has shaped the entire market dynamic for weeks: oil. The connections are actually simple \u2013 but the effects are enormous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The OVX \u2013 the crude oil volatility index \u2013 has completely changed in the last twelve months. A year ago, it was around 24, a level we would call \u201enormal.\" Then came the Middle East conflict, and the OVX shot up to over 125 at one point. Currently, it's fluctuating in the range of 80 to 95 \u2013 still extremely high in historical comparison.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What does that mean specifically? The option prices on oil ETFs like USO are massively inflated. This implies: the market expects huge fluctuations in oil prices, in both directions. The ceasefire has calmed the situation somewhat, but the Strait of Hormuz remains a bottleneck whose security hangs by a thread.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Traders can profit from this high implied volatility by trading options strategies such as Iron Flies, Iron Condors, or Butterflies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n To conclude, here are two charts that perfectly illustrate the current market theme at the individual stock level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Snowflake (SNOW) notiert bei rund 121 USD und verliert am vergangenen Freitag \u00fcber 8 %. Von den Hochs \u00fcber 280 USD aus dem vergangenen Jahr ist das ein R\u00fcckgang von mehr als 55 %. Das Unternehmen investiert massiv in KI-Infrastruktur, aber der Markt will Ergebnisse sehen \u2013 und zwar jetzt. In einem Hochzinsumfeld werden teure Zukunftsversprechen gnadenlos abgestraft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Example Cash-Secured Put: Sell-to-Open SNOW Put, Strike $100, Expiration May 15, 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The situation is similarly drastic for the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV). The chart shows a drop of around 37 % \u2013 from about $118 to the current level of just under $75. And this is not an obscure niche fund, but a broadly diversified software ETF. When a product like this takes such a hit, it shows how widespread the weakness in the tech sector has become.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Cash-Secured Put on IGV - At The Money<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Trade: Sell-to-Open IGV Put, Strike $75, Expires May 15, 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The message is clear: the \u201eAI growth at all costs\" trade, which still dominated headlines in 2025, no longer works. Investors want profitability and cash flow \u2013 not PowerPoint slides about the AI revolution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Almost the entire software market has gigantic premiums, which options traders could also use in the form of cash-secured puts. Of course, these trades are not a guaranteed profit, but the risk-reward ratio shifts significantly in favor of the option seller.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the coming weeks, there are two crucial variables that can push the market in one direction or the other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n First, the ceasefire. The current ceasefire between the US and Iran is limited to two weeks. If it holds, the oil market could continue to stabilize, which would provide a tailwind for the overall stock market. If it fails, we will quickly be back to OVX values above 100 \u2013 and the S&P 500 will likely test its March lows again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Second, the earnings season. Apple and Microsoft report at the end of April. If these two heavyweights can deliver \u2013 especially regarding the monetization of their AI investments \u2013 that could be enough to break the 50-day moving average at 6,780. If they disappoint, the fragile recovery will very quickly turn into a bull trap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We are in a phase where the markets are technically weak, and geopolitical uncertainty is overshadowing everything. The VIX futures curve indicates that the market is no longer expecting a strong sell-off. The high OVX opens up many opportunities for option sellers. Additionally, there are high premium income opportunities in software stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What does this mean for us as traders? Seize opportunities, observe premium levels, and wait for targeted chances. In such market phases, the best trades often arise \u2013 but only if you have patience and don't blindly jump into the market. Volatility is there, premiums are high \u2013 but you still need to have risk and money management under control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Der S&P 500 hat vergangene Woche rund 3,6 % zugelegt \u2013 die beste Woche seit November. Die Stimmung hat sich sp\u00fcrbar aufgehellt, und nach den turbulenten Wochen im M\u00e4rz kehrt langsam etwas Ruhe ein. Trotzdem lohnt sich ein genauerer Blick auf die Charts, die VIX-Terminstruktur und den \u00d6lmarkt \u2013 denn ein paar offene Fragen bleiben. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":46,"featured_media":66749,"template":"","analysen-kategorie":[4698,4486],"class_list":["post-66615","analyse","type-analyse","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","analysen-kategorie-kw16-2026","analysen-kategorie-optionstrading-fuer-investoren-mit-alexander-eichhorn"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse\/66615","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/analyse"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/46"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66749"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"analysen-kategorie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analysen-kategorie?post=66615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"Line](\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/VIX-Terminstrukturkurve-1024x512.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nCrude Oil and OVX - The Elephant in the Room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Snowflake and IGV - Growth is Punished<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"Line](\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/SNOWFLAKE-Chart-1024x634.png\")
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![\"Line](\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/IGV-Chart-1024x634.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n
What we should focus on now<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n