{"id":66737,"date":"2026-04-27T08:44:30","date_gmt":"2026-04-27T06:44:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=66737"},"modified":"2026-04-27T08:44:38","modified_gmt":"2026-04-27T06:44:38","slug":"further-upside-potential-in-the-sp-500","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/weiteres-aufwaertspotenzial-im-sp-500\/","title":{"rendered":"Further upside potential in the S&P 500?\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With a gain of 0.55 percent, the S&P 500 ended the past trading week virtually unchanged. Given the strong rally in the three weeks prior, during which the S&P 500 saw a gain of around 13 percent, it is not surprising that the index is taking a breather. Many traders are now wondering whether the S&P 500 has further upside potential, or if the momentum has run out for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is currently driving the market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The sharp rise in recent weeks can primarily be explained by geopolitical concerns receding into the background. After the pullback due to tensions in the Middle East, the market quickly switched back to risk-on mode. Investors are once again more inclined to buy stocks rather than withdraw capital from risky assets. Since the low on March 30th alone, the S&P 500 has gained approximately 13 percent at its peak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, many investors are refocusing on fundamentals. While geopolitical risks have not disappeared, they are currently being given less weight. Instead, the market is concentrating on corporate earnings, revenues, margins, and whether the high expectations for the current year can be confirmed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reporting season kicks off with strong results<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The current Q1 2026 earnings season has started off pleasingly strong. As of April 24th, 28 percent of S&P 500 companies had already released their results. Of these, 84 percent exceeded earnings expectations, while 81 percent also surprised positively on revenue. Both figures are above the historical averages of the past five and ten years.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The quality of the \u201csurprises\u201d is also noteworthy. Companies that have already reported earnings were, on average, 12.3 percent above expectations. This is significantly higher than the five-year average of 7.3 percent and the ten-year average of 7.1 percent. Positive earnings surprises were particularly strong in the industrial, materials, and information technology sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the first quarter of 2026, the so-called \u201eblended\u201c earnings growth (the earnings growth of already reported results plus expected results) of the S&P 500 is currently at 15.1 percent year-over-year. For comparison, a week earlier this figure was still at 13.0 percent. This means that current figures are already noticeably improving earnings estimates. Should the growth of 15.1 percent actually be achieved, it would be the sixth consecutive quarter with double-digit earnings growth.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The revenue side also presents a very positive picture. FactSet reports expected revenue growth of 10.3 percent for the first quarter. This would be the highest revenue increase since the third quarter of 2022. More importantly, all eleven sectors in the S&P 500 currently show year-over-year revenue growth. This development is led by information technology, communication services, and financials. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors signal risk appetite<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The fact that investors have switched back to risk-on mode can best be seen by looking at the sector rotation. The rally of the last four weeks began on March 31st, after the market bottomed on March 30th. The following chart shows the performance of the 11 S&P 500 market sectors since March 30th.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Bar
Performance of the 11 S&P 500 Market Sectors Since March 31<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

With an increase of more than 25 %, the technology sector (XLK) was by far the strongest market sector. But other offensive market sectors such as Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Communication Services, and Industrials were also among the leading sectors, while defensive sectors such as Utilities (XLU), Health Care (XLV), and Consumer Staples (XLP) moved more or less sideways. When capital flows into offensive and riskier market sectors, it is a clear sign of increasing risk appetite among investors, which usually only occurs in a bull market and favors a scenario of further rising prices in the medium term, even if the market is somewhat overheated in the short term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Upward movement supported by the broad market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Another positive signal is that the upward movement is being supported by the broad market and not just by a small number of large-cap stocks. This can be seen in the large number of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange reaching new 52-week highs or in the rising advance-decline line, among other things.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A seasonally strong phase is coming.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Don't underestimate seasonality either. April to July is one of the strongest seasonal phases of the year for the S&P 500. The preceding correction until March is also typical. In 80 % of all cases over the last 20 years, the months of April, May, and July ended with a positive performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
Percentage of months with positive returns in the S&P 500 (last 20 years)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Should the upward trend continue, 2026 would look like a completely normal year in retrospect, at least as far as seasonality is concerned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author: Tobias Schmid<\/a>
Date: 04\/27\/2026<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Liebe Trader, liebe B\u00f6rsenfreunde. Mit einem Plus von 0,55 Prozent beendete der S&P 500 die vergangene Handelswoche nahezu unver\u00e4ndert. Angesichts der starken Rally in den drei Wochen zuvor, w\u00e4hrend der der S&P 500 einen Anstieg von rund 13 Prozent an den Tag legte, ist es nicht \u00fcberraschend, dass der Index zun\u00e4chst eine Verschnaufpause einlegt. Viele […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":66740,"template":"","analysen-kategorie":[849,860],"class_list":["post-66737","analyse","type-analyse","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","analysen-kategorie-index","analysen-kategorie-sp-500-2"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse\/66737","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/analyse"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66740"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66737"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"analysen-kategorie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analysen-kategorie?post=66737"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}