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Dear traders, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After the most recent all-time high at the beginning of July, the past trading week gave the DAX's record run a noticeable damper. The German blue-chip index closed at 24,831 points on Friday, losing nearly one percent week-on-week. This puts the index about four percent away from its all-time high of 25,900 points. The trigger for the correction in recent days was a combination of a global tech correction, geopolitical escalation, and renewed fears about interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The dominant theme of the past week was renewed selling pressure in the technology sector. What began as profit-taking in highly valued AI beneficiaries recently broadened into a widespread sell-off, reaching from Asia to Europe and Wall Street. European tech stocks lost more than three percent over the week, and the Nasdaq 100 extended its losses once again on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The DAX was not spared. Infineon was among the weakest index components on several trading days, thus representing the German chip sector, which ended the week with three consecutive days of losses. In the second tier of the stock market, the declines were at times even more significant. What is remarkable is that on the weak days, stocks related to data center expansion, which are only indirectly tied to the AI boom, also declined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The news from the Middle East once again caused uncertainty. The US and Iran continued their mutual attacks, with targets on both sides being hit again by the end of the week. The hope for a swift resolution of the conflict, which had buoyed the market in early summer, now seems to have receded for the time being.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For the stock markets, the conflict primarily affects oil prices: Brent crude climbed to its highest level in over a month. As long as the Strait of Hormuz is not fully passable again and inventories remain low in many places, the risk of further price surges hangs over the market. The chain behind this is well-known: rising oil prices fuel inflation, and interest rate expectations in the bond markets rise. This is exactly what was observed last week. Higher interest rates, in turn, disproportionately burden growth stocks, thereby intensifying the ongoing tech correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The ECB meeting falls into this environment this Thursday. After the Governing Council raised the deposit rate to 2.25 percent in June with the first interest rate hike since September 2023, the market is openly discussing a further interest rate hike in view of inflation risks. Just as with the FedWatch tool for the USA, what is priced in can also be read from the money markets for the ECB: the probabilities derived from the futures markets (see ecb-watch.eu) show that while an interest rate hike is not yet likely in July, 1-2 interest rate steps are expected over the course of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite all the nervousness, a sober look at the charts is all the more worthwhile. The long-term uptrend is intact and was most recently confirmed by the all-time high on July 6th. The subsequent correction ran down to the weekly EMA 20 at 24,830 points. Should the correction expand, the currently decisive support lies at 24,300 - 24,500 points. On the one hand, this is where the long-term support (or the former resistance area of the second half of 2025) is located; on the other hand, a few points below the support are the daily EMA 200 and the daily SMA 200.<\/p>\n\n\n\n