{"id":67933,"date":"2026-07-27T09:23:12","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T07:23:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=67933"},"modified":"2026-07-27T09:23:23","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T07:23:23","slug":"cyclical-sectors-in-the-sp-500-under-pressure","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/zyklische-sektoren-im-sp-500-unter-druck\/","title":{"rendered":"Cyclical sectors in the S&P 500 under pressure"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The defensive sector rotation in the S&P 500 continued over the past two weeks. Cyclical stocks such as consumer discretionary, communication services, and technology came under selling pressure again, while defensive sectors benefited. The uptrends in the offensive market sectors have not yet been broken; however, some critical chart levels have now been reached, which could also noticeably weigh on the overall market in the event of a bearish breakout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sector rotation continues<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the last two weeks, in addition to the technology sector, cyclical consumer stocks (Consumer Discretionary, XLY) were also significantly under pressure. The Communication Services sector (XLC), considered more offensive or cyclical, was also weak. Besides the energy sector, which performed the strongest, a rotation into defensive sectors such as Utilities (XLU), Health Care (XLV), and Consumer Staples (XLP) was observed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Performance of the 11 S&P 500 Market Sectors (Last 10 Days)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In such a situation, a more detailed analysis of the charts of individual sectors is also worthwhile. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The technology sector remains in an intact uptrend. However, if the support at $172.5 does not hold, an expansion of the correction is threatened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Technology Sector ETF (XLK) Daily Chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Consumer Discretionary sector was unable to hold the short-term support at $113.25. The focus is now on the next support around $105. If this is also broken, there's a risk of the downward movement continuing down to the area of the weekly EMA 200 at $101-$102.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Consumer Discretionary Sector ETF (XLY) Weekly Chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Renewed rise in energy prices causes headwinds<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The trigger for the headwinds is the renewed escalation in the Iran war, which pushed the WTI crude oil price up to $90 in the past two weeks. This brings back a theme that has already occupied markets several times this year: higher energy prices, which with a delay feed into inflation and strain domestic consumption through increased cost of living. At the same time, the Fed is put under pressure, and the market is now pricing in 1-2 interest rate hikes this year. This combination particularly affects cyclical sectors and thus fuels the current rotation even further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Developments in the Middle East and the oil price will therefore remain the dominant theme in the coming weeks. In addition, there is the political component: the midterms are approaching in the fall. A further massive escalation or the absence of a rapid de-escalation would directly impact voters through rising gasoline and energy prices and noticeably diminish the Republicans' chances. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the US government's perspective, there is at least an incentive to contain the conflict before the elections. This scenario should be considered in one's planning. As demonstrated multiple times in recent months, a rapid de-escalation can be met with an equally significant counter-movement in the markets. Anyone who positions themselves unilaterally now risks being caught off guard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index consolidates in a symmetrical triangle<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 index, meanwhile, is consolidating in the form of a symmetrical triangle. If everything goes according to the book, a breakout in the direction of the overarching upward trend would be the base scenario, at least from a chart technical perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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S&P 500 Index daily chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Even in the event of a breakout below the ascending trendline of the triangle, the next intermediate stop would likely be seen in the area of the daily EMA 100 (blue) in conjunction with the horizontal support at approximately 7275 points. If this support also fails, the next correction target would lie in the area of the daily EMA 200 (red).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For sustainable stabilization, it should also be evident that capital is increasingly flowing back into offensive market sectors (esp. XLY and XLK) in the new trading week. However, if the weakness in these sectors continues, an expansion of the correction will become more likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author: Tobias Schmid<\/a>
July 27, 2026<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Liebe Trader, liebe B\u00f6rsenfreunde. Die defensive Sektoren-Rotation im S&P 500 hat sich in den vergangenen beiden Wochen fortgesetzt. Zyklische Werte wie Konsum, Kommunikations-Services und Technologie standen erneut unter Abgabedruck, w\u00e4hrend defensive Sektoren profitieren konnten. Noch sind die Aufw\u00e4rtstrends in den offensiven Marktsektoren nicht gebrochen; allerdings sind mittlerweile einige kritische Chart-Niveaus erreicht, die im Falle eines […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":67938,"template":"","analysen-kategorie":[849,860],"class_list":["post-67933","analyse","type-analyse","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","analysen-kategorie-index","analysen-kategorie-sp-500-2"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse\/67933","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/analyse"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67938"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67933"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"analysen-kategorie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analysen-kategorie?post=67933"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}