{"id":68099,"date":"2026-08-10T09:09:44","date_gmt":"2026-08-10T07:09:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/?post_type=analyse&p=68099"},"modified":"2026-08-10T09:09:46","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T07:09:46","slug":"buying-panic-drives-dow-jones-to-all-time-high","status":"publish","type":"analyse","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/analyse\/kaufpanik-fuehrt-dow-jones-auf-allzeithoch\/","title":{"rendered":"Buying panic drives Dow Jones to an all-time high"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the past two trading weeks, sentiment in the stock markets has turned significantly. The uncertainty of the previous weeks seems to have vanished in an instant, leading to a veritable buying panic and driving the Dow Jones to new all-time highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fundamental drivers behind the rally<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The most important relaxation factor in recent days came from the Middle East. In early August, President Trump called off a planned attack on Iran. At the same time, Iran and Oman are negotiating a framework for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Donald Trump hinted at an imminent reopening. For the stock markets, what matters most is the price of oil. After surging to over 93 USD at the end of July, the price of WTI crude oil has dropped significantly over the past two weeks and is currently trading at around 77 USD per barrel. The inflation pressure imported via energy costs, which had weighed on the markets since spring, thus disappeared from prices. However, a real deal does not exist to this day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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WTI Daily Chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The second driver is monetary policy. On July 29, the FOMC kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, albeit with three dissenting votes in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. However, last Friday's employment report somewhat defused this discussion: instead of the expected 83,000 new jobs, the US economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, and May and Jones were also revised downward by a cumulative 103,000 jobs. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the priced-in probability of a September rate hike subsequently fell from around 67 percent on July 31 to 44 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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CME FedWatch Tool<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The stock markets are currently receiving further tailwind from the earnings season. This is turning out to be exceptionally strong once again. Of the 88 percent of S&P 500 companies that have reported for the second quarter so far, 86 percent beat earnings estimates. That is the highest rate since the second quarter of 2021. In total, the results are 29.2 percent above expectations, the highest figure since FactSet began tracking data in 2008. However, Alphabet and Amazon alone are responsible for about two-thirds of this record figure. If you exclude these two companies, earnings are only 10.9 percent above expectations instead of 29.2 percent. Within the Dow itself, Caterpillar impressed with strong figures and a raised sales forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Added to this is the recovery of semiconductor stocks, which had suffered in July from doubts about the sustainability of AI investments. The result was a very strong and broad upward movement: on August 4, the Dow closed above 54,000 points for the first time, and on August 5, the third all-time high in three days was reached, with a closing price of 54,349 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most important event of the new week is August 12 with the US consumer prices for the month of July. If the decline in inflation is confirmed, the rally will have further tailwinds. If the figure disappoints, the rate hike debate will be right back on the agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technical outlook for the Dow Jones<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On July 29 and 30, the Dow Jones initially corrected again down to the level of the 50-day EMA in the area of 51,500 points. Starting from this horizontal support zone, an increase of around six percent followed, running up to 54,744 points without a breather. The upward trend was thus confirmed once again. Another positive aspect is that the rally and the breakout took place on increased volume, which gives the signal additional weight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Dow Jones daily chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A potential warning sign to watch closely over the coming weeks can be seen by looking at the Dow Jones Transportation Average. In a healthy bull market, the signals from both indices should confirm each other. However, the transport index has shown some relative weakness in recent days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, there was a parabolic rally here in March and April, which is why an extended consolidation does not yet cause any major concerns as long as the other major US indices confirm the upward trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author: Tobias Schmid
<\/a>Date: 08\/10\/2026<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Liebe Trader, liebe B\u00f6rsenfreunde. In den vergangenen beiden Handelswochen hat sich das Stimmungsbild an den Aktienm\u00e4rkten deutlich gewendet. Die Unsicherheit der Wochen zuvor scheint mit einem Schlag verschwunden zu sein, was zu einer regelrechten Kaufpanik f\u00fchrte und den Dow Jones auf neue Allzeithochs steigen lie\u00df. Die fundamentalen Treiber hinter der Rally Der wichtigste Entspannungsfaktor kam […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":68103,"template":"","analysen-kategorie":[857,849],"class_list":["post-68099","analyse","type-analyse","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","analysen-kategorie-dow-jones","analysen-kategorie-index"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse\/68099","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analyse"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/analyse"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/68103"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68099"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"analysen-kategorie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/analysen-kategorie?post=68099"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}