The most important burden factor for the DAX last week was the oil price. Brent already approached the 100-dollar mark at the beginning of the week and exceeded it on Wednesday for the first time since the end of July. The background was the renewed escalation in the Middle East and the concern about further restrictions on oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Thursday, the situation worsened once again. Brent briefly rose to just under $110 and, despite Friday\u2019s pullback, ended the week more than 8 % higher. For the stock market, it is not only the direct impact of higher energy prices that matters. A prolonged oil price shock simultaneously increases inflationary pressure and makes it more difficult for central banks to ease monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The European Central Bank added to the pressure on Thursday. As expected, the ECB raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points. The deposit rate now stands at 2.50 %. At the same time, the central bank made it clear that the conflict in the Middle East is increasing inflationary pressures and that inflation is likely to remain above the 2 percent target for a longer period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The ECB now expects an average inflation rate of 3.0 % for 2026. At the same time, it raised its growth forecast slightly. This is a difficult combination for the stock market: The economy has so far been robust enough to withstand further interest rate hikes, while inflation remains too high to justify a looser monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Accordingly, yields on the bond market continued to rise. The yield on 10-year German government bonds reached its highest level since 2011. In the U.S., too, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds approached the 5 % mark at times. Higher yields increase the discount rate for future corporate earnings and thus weigh on stock valuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In line with this, German inflation data confirmed the increasing price pressure. Consumer prices in August were 2.9 % higher than a year earlier, following 2.8 % in July and 2.3 % in June. Once again, energy prices were the main driver, rising by 10.5 % compared with the previous year. Fuel prices actually rose by 27.7 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There were no signs from the U.S. either that the situation on the interest rate front would ease anytime soon. The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4 % in August compared with the previous month, while core inflation rose by 0.3 %. As a result, the probability priced into the market of another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week rose to over 80 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Although the Fed is only indirectly relevant for the DAX, US yields influence global valuation levels and thus also the European stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There were also some negative signals from the German economy. Production in the manufacturing sector fell by 1.1 % in July compared with the previous month. The automotive industry performed particularly poorly, with a decline of 9.2 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Exports were also disappointing, falling by 0.8 % in July. Particularly striking was the 9.5 % decline in exports to China, while exports to the U.S. rose significantly. For the heavily export-oriented German stock market, weak demand from China in particular thus remains a risk factor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On Friday, the DAX was able to recover somewhat after oil prices retreated from their weekly highs. However, there is no real all-clear yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Over the weekend, another ship was struck in the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, the important Saudi East-West pipeline remains closed following a drone attack. If the pipeline remains out of service for an extended period, an additional 4 % of the global oil supply could be affected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Talks between Iran and several Gulf states in Oman on Monday are providing some hope. However, an agreement ready for immediate signing regarding the complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz is not expected for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/BRN1_2026-09-13_20-02-29_1c6ef-1024x709.png\")
ECB raises key interest rate, yields continue to rise<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Inflation and Fed remain in focus<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
German economic data remains mixed<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The Middle East remains the key risk at the start of the week<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n