{"id":21107,"date":"2022-10-03T11:00:12","date_gmt":"2022-10-03T09:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wordpress.p534641.webspaceconfig.de\/?p=21107"},"modified":"2024-05-14T16:01:29","modified_gmt":"2024-05-14T14:01:29","slug":"changing-world-order","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/weltordnung-im-wandel\/","title":{"rendered":"Principles for dealing with the changing world order"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"captrader<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

by Ray Dalio is the new, exciting work by the investment legend. This time, the hedge fund manager focuses on the rise and fall of nations. The book comes in almost the same format and layout as his previous books. Principles of success<\/em>. The style of expression is similarly challenging and the size of the book is certainly above average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it is also precisely a subject that is not presented in passing. Rather, readers will find in this work an interesting study of the great empires of the past and present - including the Dutch, British, Chinese and American. Perhaps also out of feedback on his last book, the author additionally provides and but a kind of fastlane through highlighting in the text. So if Ray Dalio goes into too much detail at one point or another, you can simply skip the parts and just follow the boldly marked passages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The author's central thesis lies on a great cycle that would have determined the successes and failures of all the world's great countries throughout history. This is based on the political and economic observations that Ray Dalio has been privileged to collect over a career spanning more than 50 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"In search of an explanation, he discovered that such combinations of conditions were characteristic, of periods of transition in which wealth and power shifted in ways that reshaped the world order.\"<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n

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He thus makes specific reference to the current political and economic development of the USA. He sees parallels here with early changes at the top of the world economy and suggests that China will take over the leading role in the world in just a few years or decades at most.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this work, Ray Dalio analyzes the most turbulent economic and political phases in history in order to deduce why the times ahead and those ahead will be radically different from those we have experienced so far. For me, there is a bit too much clickbait in such formulations in particular, which is also the biggest criticism of the book on my part. For one thing, it is once again very awkwardly written. Many topics could have been formulated or visualized more smoothly and memorably. The layout is outwardly the same as in Principles of success<\/em>, but then inside the book, not comparable effort was put into the design.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, the complete approach of the strong simplification to the image of eternal cycles is too superficial for my taste. In combination with the thesis that we are facing times that will bring even more radical changes than ever before, it seems somewhat exaggerated to me. Especially since the evidence for this is not there. It sounds to me a bit like what Benjamin Graham said, who taught us in his great work Intelligent Investing that we humans are incredibly good at recognizing connections and patterns, even when there are factually none to recognize. Our human brain loves to look for them and is terrific at constructing them if we can't find them right away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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But that doesn't change the fact that Ray Dalio's thought processes and analyses not only sound logical, well-founded and interesting in many areas, but I also find it fundamentally exciting to listen to the opinions of such personalities. When do you ever have the chance to talk to one of the most influential people in the world?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some may now wonder why Ray Dalio is now commenting on political issues. In his function as a hedge fund manager, he has had to deal with the most important political and economic factors worldwide for the last 50 years or so. It is not a new topic for him, but rather a summary of the experiences and analyses he has had to make and process anyway. His investors have come to expect him to think about whether countries and their markets are thriving or failing.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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\"A few years ago, I noticed that various significant developments were taking place that I had never experienced before, but which had already happened in history in one way or another. Above all, I observed that high debt levels coincided with low or negative interest rates, which led to the printing presses being fired up for the world's three major reserve currencies, that there was fierce political and social conflict in individual countries - especially in the USA, where the differences in wealth, political attitudes and values had not been so great for around a hundred years - and that China was emerging as a new world power, challenging the previous world power (the USA) and the existing world order. The last time there had been similar developments was between 1930 and 1945. I found that highly alarming. I knew I could only really understand what was happening and come to terms with future developments if I looked at precedents. That's how this research paper on the rise and fall of empires, their reserve currencies and their markets came about.\" <\/em><\/p>\nRay Dalio<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The great cycle that the author repeatedly addresses in his book moves between 1) peaceful, prosperous periods of high creativity and productivity that raise the standard of living enormously, and 2) depression, revolution, and wartime, when there is intense struggle for wealth and power and much wealth, life, and other valuable things will be destroyed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Please let me make it clear that while I am describing these past cycles, I am not one of those people who believe that past development will go on forever, without understanding the causal mechanisms that lead to change. My goal, first and foremost, is to make these cause-and-effect relationships clear to you, too, and to use the insights I've gained to sound out what might be coming, and to agree in principle on how best to proceed then.\" <\/em><\/p>\nRay Dalio<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

This book is an exciting read, especially for those interested in politics and economics. You should have an interest in history and a lot of stamina. Some prior knowledge certainly can't hurt either. It may be too complex and lengthy to get started, but those who want to sink their teeth into it or who generally have a soft spot for such literature will get their money's worth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I liked it a lot, even though it didn't really knock me off my feet and at one point or another it seemed a bit overdone in an American way.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WELTORDNUNG IM WANDEL by Ray Dalio is the new, exciting work by the investment legend. <\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":21110,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[54],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-literatur"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21107","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21107"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21107\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21110"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21107"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21107"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21107"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}