{"id":45998,"date":"2023-11-07T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-07T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/staging.captrader.com\/?p=45998"},"modified":"2024-05-15T13:48:33","modified_gmt":"2024-05-15T11:48:33","slug":"winning-the-stock-market-with-strategy-and-tactics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/boersengewinne-mit-strategie-und-taktik\/","title":{"rendered":"Stock market gains with strategy and tactics"},"content":{"rendered":"
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by Peter E. Huber offers interesting insights into the thoughts of an experienced investment professional. The author has more than 50 years of experience on the financial markets. He focuses less on the sheer madness of speculation and short-term forecasts. Instead, he focuses on portfolio management and long-term strategies and tactics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This rejection of short-term stock market forecasts and the supposed experts, based on scientific findings, becomes particularly clear in the first part of the book. Peter E. Huber obviously has no sympathy for all the jugglers, traders and gurus. Even if they all too regularly present their voodoo strategies and coffee grounds forecasts, even in renowned financial media. Given the results of empirical studies, who could blame him?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Peter E. Huber clearly emphasizes that no one can reliably predict the future development of the markets. This message is particularly relevant for beginners. It encourages them to abandon the illusion that \"experts\" have found the Holy Grail of the investment industry. No one can systematically beat the market, even at opportunity cost. And certainly not out of seemingly charitable intentions to offer their strategy to the masses to copy for little money.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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\"There are two kinds of (stock market) forecasters: those who know nothing and those who don't know that they know nothing.\" - John Kenneth Galbraith<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just like John Kenneth Galbraith, Peter E. Huber has realized in his 50 years in the financial sector that there are really no experts in the stock market - because no one can predict where the DAX, the S&P 500 or any other index will be in a week, a month or a year.\"<\/em> <\/p>\nPeter E. Huber<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

He argues convincingly, based on scientific evidence, that the markets are largely efficient. Despite all the criticism of this concept. Almost all available information is already contained in current share prices. Accordingly, forecasts and attempts to \"beat\" the market through one's own actions are rarely successful and even less so in the long term. Instead, the author focuses on an anti-cyclical, long-term investment strategy based on a deeper understanding of the markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Gold has proven to be a less lucrative form of investment in the long term. This may be due to the fact that gold is not actually a commodity, but a currency - and a very stable one at that. In ancient times, an ounce of gold could buy about the same as it does today. Adjusted for inflation, gold has therefore retained its value over the centuries, but no more.\" Peter E. Huber<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Together with his team, he has conducted decades of research on the capital markets and analyzed countless historical data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"My team and I worked intensively on capital market research for many years. We investigated the factors that influence the markets. To do this, we used historical databases dating back to the 1800s. That's why we've been accused of looking backwards instead of looking forwards, like when driving a car. But the stock market is not a car and the future is shrouded in thick fog. Future developments are determined by events that we do not yet know. That is why it is very important to look at the laws of history. If you don't know the past, you can't master the future.\" Peter E. Huber<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

At this point, however, there is a break in content for me. In the first part of the book, the author has rightly expressed his disgust at the goings-on in the financial media on an academic basis. But in the second part, he begins to identify such forecasts, trends and patterns himself. From this point onwards, the book can no longer be distinguished from a typical financial expert's book.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The back cover and first chapters are reminiscent of the works of Pirmin Hotz, Burton G. Malkiel, Gerd Kommer and Nikolaus Braun: they were scientifically sound, critical of the more than questionable forecasts of supposed financial experts and the media and careful with their own backtesting results. In the first part, the sometimes hair-raising approaches of the gurus, traders and stock pickers are extensively reduced to absurdity. In the second part, however, dozens of own forecasts follow, which are only \"proven\" with simple backtests. Statements such as \"Forecasts are therefore completely worthless and resemble fortune-telling\" could certainly give you pause for thought.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Investors like to listen to the advice of stock market gurus, especially when they are obviously successful investors such as Warren Buffett, Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller, Edouard Carmignac or Felix Zulauf. But does such behavior also lead to stock market success? The US consulting firm CXO Advisory took a close look at all public advice given by 68 prominent investment gurus worldwide between 2005 and 2012. The result: on average, the masters were right 47 percent of the time. So the chance of winning is greater if you bet on red or black in the casino.\" Peter E. Huber<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n

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Another major point of criticism concerns the size of the book. With less than 100 pages, including many graphics, generous page breaks and free space, the book is quite thin. However, the author should not have been short of useful additional topics. For example, the opportunity costs of research activities could have been included in the book or dealt with in much greater detail. Or a comparison between active and passive investing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Otherwise, however, the content of this book is really well prepared in many places. The author dares to be critical of so many supposedly irrefutable assumptions about the capital markets. You can feel that Peter E. Huber is at the source of many aspects and is passionate about the subject.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Visually, the transitions between the chapters could certainly have been improved. However, the graphics are all impeccable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to the visual presentation and the rather manageable size, one could assume that publication came before knowledge transfer. You can at least sense a similarity to Successful scientific investment<\/em> by Andreas Beck. This book also failed to convince me one hundred percent. The works by Gerd Kommer, Pirmin Hotz and Nikolaus Braun, on the other hand, are fundamentally different. And they conveyed an incomparable density of knowledge with hardly any recognizable focus on personal branding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Of course, as with a coin toss, there are always people who accurately predict several significant movements. These people attract a lot of public attention and recognition, are regarded as stock market gurus and end up believing themselves to have a special stock market talent. The writer and financial expert Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls them 'fools of chance'.\" Peter E. Huber<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

At this point a few words about the author:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peter E. Huber has been one of the country's most successful portfolio managers since the 1980s, making him a personality in the German financial world. He has already been honored with numerous prizes and awards for his work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the course of his entrepreneurial activities, he founded two companies, PEH Wertpapier and StarCapital. In 2020, he joined Taunes Trust GmbH, where he now focuses even more intensively on portfolio management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"So if you try to predict the future course of the stock market and act accordingly, you turn from an investor into a speculator. John Maynard Keynes put it in a nutshell: speculation is a bet on what others will think about a particular investment. An investment, on the other hand, is about profiting from the growth of company profits in the long term. So in principle, the stock market is nothing more than a gigantic distraction in the work of investing.\" Peter E. Huber<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Overall offers Stock market gains with strategy and tactics<\/em> provides interesting insights into the world of finance and the financial media in particular. Peter E. Huber emphasizes the relevance of long-term versus short-term strategies in countless places. Nevertheless, in my view he somewhat contradictorily rejects the forecasts of others, whereas he defends his own. With a little more content, this contradiction could perhaps have been resolved, but the opportunity is somewhat wasted. Nevertheless, it remains an exciting book with valuable impulses - especially in the first part.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Only liars are always right on the stock market! Nobody can reliably estimate the future development of the markets or make accurate stock market forecasts.\" Peter E. Huber<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

von Peter E. Huber bietet interessante Einblicke in die Gedankenwelt eines erfahrenen Investmentprofis. Der Autor verf\u00fcgt \u00fcber mehr als 50 Jahre Erfahrung an den Finanzm\u00e4rkten. Dabei fokussiert er sich weniger auf den schieren Irrsinn von Spekulation und kurzfristigen Prognosen. Vielmehr geht er vor allem auf das Portfoliomanagement sowie langfristige Strategien und Taktiken ein. Diese von […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":46000,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[54],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-literatur"],"acf":{"blog_summary":"","blog_faq_schalter":"nein","faq_uberschrift":"","blog_faq_loop":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45998","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45998"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45998\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/46000"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45998"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45998"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.captrader.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45998"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}