US weekly outlook: PCE data as high point - monetary policy remains dominant theme

Nach einer verlustreichen Handelswoche hoffen Anleger an der Wall Street auf eine Trendwende. Im Mittelpunkt dürften erneut die geldpolitischen Entwicklungen stehen. Wiederholt kommen zahlreiche Fed-Vertreter zu Wort, welche wichtige Impulse an die Märkte liefern könnten. Gen Wochenschluss dürften insbesondere die PCE-Daten über Wohl und Wehe entscheiden.

US-Daten stärker als gedacht – Zinszweifel bleiben bestehen

Besser als erwartete US-Daten haben am vergangenen Freitag den Marktteilnehmern die schwelenden Zinszweifel nicht nehmen können. So kletterten die Bestellungen für langlebige Güter im April um 0,7 Prozent und damit deutlich stärker als erwartet (-0,8 Prozent). Auch der finale Verbraucherstimmungsindex aus dem Hause der University of Michigan fiel für den Monat Mai mit 69,1 Punkten besser als gedacht aus (67,5 Punkte).

Wall Street bleibt am Montag wegen des Memorial Days geschlossen – Fed-Reden ab Dienstag im Blick

Feiertagsbedingt bleiben die Börsenpforten an der Wall Street wegen des Memorial Days am Montag geschlossen.

Erst am Dienstag dürften Anleger erneut einige Fed-Reden im Auge behalten. So könnten Mester (Cleveland/06:55 Uhr), Kashkari (Minneapolis/15:55 Uhr) und Cook (Gouverneurin/19:05 Uhr) das Interesse auf sich ziehen.

Bereits in den Wochen zuvor kamen immer wieder verschiedene Fed-Notenbanker zu Wort, welche sich tendenziell vorsichtig in Bezug auf eine mögliche Zinswende äußerten.

Das Verbrauchervertrauen vom Conference Board für den Monat Mai dürfte um (16:00 Uhr) für Impulse sorgen.

Beige Book am Mittwoch im Fokus – US-BIP könnte sich eintrüben

Zur Wochenmitte dürfte das sogenannte „Beige Book“ der Fed (20:00 Uhr) die Aufmerksamkeit auf sich ziehen, welches über die aktuelle Wirtschaftslage berichtet.

Eine weitere Rede durch Williams (New York/19:45 Uhr) sowie Bostic (Atlanta/01:00 Uhr) stehen ebenfalls im Blickpunkt.

Am Donnerstag gilt es die zweiten Schätzungen zum US-Bruttoinlandsprodukt (14:30 Uhr) zu begutachten. Erwartet wird ein Plus von 1,5 Prozent für das abgelaufene Quartal im Vergleich zum Vorquartal (zuvor: +3,4 Prozent).

Den Handelstag runden Williams (New York/18:05 Uhr) und Logan (Dallas/23:00 Uhr) ab.

China-Daten als potenzieller Impulsgeber – Alle Augen auf den PCE-Deflator

Am Freitag dürften zunächst wichtige China-Daten in den Fokus rücken (03:30 Uhr). Der sogenannte NBS-Einkaufsmanagerindex für das verarbeitende Gewerbe (Mai) könnte gegenüber dem Vormonat um 0,1 Punkte auf 51,5 Zähler angezogen haben. Die Konjunkturdaten aus dem Reich der Mitte sollten in den USA auch in Europa wichtige Vorgaben für den Freitagshandel geben.

Als Wochenhighlight dürfte die Publikation des sogenannten PCE-Deflators für die persönlichen Konsumausgaben fungieren (14:30 Uhr). Besagte Daten geben in der Regel eine gute Indikation im Hinblick auf die zukünftige Inflationsentwicklung ab, welche als Grundlage für geldpolitische Entscheidungen fungiert.

Die Berichtssaison neigt sich indes dem Ende zu, nachdem in der vergangenen Woche der Chiphersteller NVIDIA abermals hat überzeugen können. Lediglich Nachzügler aus den zweiten und dritten Reihen wie etwa Agilent oder Salesforce berichten am Mittwoch über das abgelaufene Quartal.

Timo Emden

Timo Emden holds a B.A. in Business Administration, is a market analyst and a certified blockchain expert from the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. He has been dedicated to the global financial markets for over 14 years, with a focus on crypto assets. His assessments are based on chart technology and sentiment - he nevertheless considers important fundamental events to be significant. As a market expert, Mr. Emden is a valued contact for TV, press and radio.

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