Nasdaq 100 Prognose & Analyse: Chance auf Trendfortsetzung

Liniendiagramm des Nasdaq 100-Index, das die Tagespreise mit gleitenden Durchschnitten und verschiedenen technischen Indikatoren von September bis Mai zeigt, einschließlich des automatisch gespeicherten Entwurfs.

Dear trader, dear stock market friends.

Nach drei Wochen mit Kursverlusten in Folge, gelang dem Nasdaq 100 in der letzten Woche das Comeback. Mit einem Schlusskurs von 17.718 Punkten schloss der Technologieindex rund vier Prozent höher als in der Vorwoche. Nachdem im Laufe der Woche nach schwachen Wirtschaftsdaten, teilweise enttäuschenden Unternehmensergebnissen und wieder aufkeimenden Inflationssorgen zeitweise Verkaufsdruck aufkam, hellte sich insbesondere nach der Veröffentlichung der Quartalsergebnisse von Google und Microsoft am Donnerstag Abend die Stimmung auf und die Kauflaune kehrte zurück.

Überzeugende Quartalsergebnisse

Nach der Veröffentlichung der Earnings von Google (bzw. Alphabet) und Microsoft am Donnerstag Abend, schossen die Aktien der beiden Unternehmen nach oben. Sowohl Microsoft als auch Google konnten die Erwartungen hinsichtlich Gewinn und Umsatz schlagen. Die Alphabet-Aktie eröffnete am Freitag mit einem Gap von 11,8 Prozent auf einem neuen Allzeithoch und beendete die Woche nur wenige Punkte unter dem neuen Höchstkurs.

Google Aktie Wochenchart

Alphabet-Aktie Wochenchart

Microsoft ging am Freitag mit einem Plus von 3,3 Prozent in den Handel. Alphabet und Microsoft sind nicht nur Schwergewichte im Nasdaq 100, sondern haben auch den KI-Hype erneut angefacht und für Kauflaune im Technologiesektor gesorgt.

Unterstützung bei 17.000 Punkten verteidigt

Der Nasdaq 100 Index fiel zuvor im Wochenverlauf bis auf 17.000 Punkte zurück und verteidigte somit diesen wichtigen Unterstützungsbereich. Wie auf dem nachfolgenden Chart zu sehen ist, war der Nasdaq 100 zudem im überverkauften Bereich. Der RSI (10) notierte zum ersten Mal seit Oktober 2023 (dem Beginn der Rally) auf einem Niveau von unter 30 Punkten. In Kombination mit dem in den letzten Wochen negativeren Sentiment scheint die Ausgangslage für eine erneute Rally somit gut zu sein.

Nasdaq 100 daily chart

Nasdaq 100 Index daily chart

17.800 Punkte-Marke im Fokus

Kurzfristig muss der Nasdaq 100 jedoch zuerst einen weiteren Widerstandsbereich durchbrechen, bevor charttechnisch die Luft wieder rein ist. Neben der Tages-EMA 20 und der Tages-EMA 50 (siehe oben) befindet sich im Bereich der 17.800 Punkte ein horizontaler Widerstand aufgrund der letzten kurzfristigen lokalen Tiefpunkte. Sollte dem Index der Ausbruch gelingen, stehen die Chancen auf eine direkte Fortsetzung des Aufwärtstrends sehr gut. Ein kurzfristiger Abpraller würde indes die Chance bieten, von einem günstigeren Einstiegsniveau den Long-Trade zu suchen. Zumindest solange der Unterstützungsbereich bei 17.000 Punkten hält. Sollte dieser bärisch durchbrochen werden, würde sich das Chartbild kurzfristig eintrüben.

Hohes Kaufvolumen

Ein weiterer Faktor, der den “Bull-Case” unterstützt, ist das Volumen. Am Donnerstag im Verlauf des Handelstages sowie am Freitag fanden Käufe unter erhöhtem Volumen statt. Auf Wochenbasis sahen wir den höchsten Aufwärtsvolumen-Balken seit Januar.

Nasdaq 100 Wochenchart

Nasdaq 100 Index Wochenchart

Ob sich die positive Stimmung in der kommenden Woche fortsetzen kann, wird sich zeigen. Auch wenn die in dieser Analyse genannten Faktoren Grund zur Hoffnung geben, gibt es an der Börse keine Sicherheit und es sollten alle möglichen Szenarien in Betracht gezogen werden. Wichtig ist, dass man nicht dem Kursgeschehen hinterherläuft, sondern bereits im Voraus alle möglichen Szenarien durchdenkt und entscheidet, wie in jedem einzelnen Fall gehandelt wird.

Author: Tobias Schmid
Datum: 29.04.2024

Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

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