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Week in review DAX 40 and Wall Street: Trump unsettled - ECB leaves key interest rate unchanged

 

In view of the recent increase in political risks in the USA and the associated uncertainties for trade relations between the United States and Germany, DAX investors have increasingly run for cover this week. The mood on Wall Street also appears to have changed. Due to possible trade restrictions with China, tea stocks have recently taken a dive.

DAX Chart

 

Source: Tradingview

Chances of Donald Trump returning to the White House increase

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is increasingly causing headaches among investors. Last weekend, the 78-year-old was injured in a gun attack. Trump could now capitalize on the events, meaning that the chances of a return to the US presidency are likely to have increased. However, as the former US president is likely to pursue a protectionist policy, investors fear a deterioration in trade relations with the EU and China.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signals progress on the inflation front

On Monday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at an event organized by the Economic Club of Washington that although he saw progress on the inflation front, this would not signal a turnaround in interest rates. Investors are still betting on a rate cut next September.

ZEW data weaker than expected - US retail sales with no surprises

At 41.8 points, the ZEW index once again signaled a deterioration in the economy, following 47.5 points in the previous month.

Meanwhile, US retail sales came in as expected at 0 percent, after the sector had managed to grow by 0.3 percent in the previous month.

EU core inflation remains at 2.9 percent - ECB leaves key interest rate unchanged for the time being

New figures on the core rate of EU inflation did not come as a major surprise in the middle of the week. At 2.9%, inflation was as high as expected and thus unchanged compared to the previous month.

Thursday, however, was dominated by the ECB meeting. As expected, the monetary watchdog did not turn the notorious interest rate screws and left the key interest rate at 4.25%. The ECB last lowered the key interest rate in June, the first time it had done so since 2019.

The ECB intends to continue to make the duration and level of the restrictive course dependent on the data situation and to decide from meeting to meeting.

"The Governing Council of the ECB does not commit itself in advance to a specific interest rate path."

This afternoon, as in the days before, it is once again important to keep an eye on speeches by Fed representatives and listen for monetary policy clues. John Williams from the New York Fed (16:40) will be joined by Raphael Bostic from the Atlanta Fed (19:00).

Timo Emden in a dark suit and tie poses in front of a plain gray background and looks neutrally into the camera.
Timo Emden

Timo Emden holds a B.A. in Business Administration, is a market analyst and a certified blockchain expert from the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. He has been following the global financial markets for over 14 years, with a focus on crypto assets. His assessments are based on chart technology and sentiment - he nevertheless considers important fundamental events to be significant. As a market expert, Mr. Emden is a valued contact for TV, press and radio.

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