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Dow Jones forecast & analysis: Dow above 42,000 points for the first time

A candlestick chart showing the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index over several months, with moving averages and trading volumes below the main chart. Auto-saved draft includes various technical indicators and resistance levels carefully plotted for in-depth analysis.

Dear trader, dear stock market friends.

The Dow Jones outperformed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 last week, rising 1.62 % and reaching a new all-time high. The equity market rally was triggered by the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut on Wednesday night and confidence of further rate cuts in the coming months combined with a soft economic landing.

Upward trend in full swing

The technical chart situation in the Dow Jones currently offers little room for interpretation. The index has regularly risen to new all-time highs in recent days and months and the upward trend is unbroken. This can be seen on the one hand in the succession of higher highs and higher lows, and on the other hand in the steeply rising moving averages. The most recent upward movement led to the Dow breaking through another round price mark and closing just above 42,000 points on Friday.

Dow Jones Index daily chart

Dow Jones Index daily chart

As long as the Dow shows no signs of weakness, long-term long positions in equities and index products can be held; on the other hand, short-term setbacks offer the opportunity to seek short to medium-term long trades out of the correction with a more attractive risk/reward ratio. This approach is particularly suitable if the index retests a previous high after breaking out of it. The area of the previous high should serve as a horizontal support area. Ideally, this should be reinforced by the moving averages 20 or 50. The last local high of the Dow Jones is around 41,600 points. A correction into this support area could open up a short-term trading opportunity.

Setups in various stocks of the Dow Jones

In addition to trades at index level, long trades in individual stocks are a good idea in a bull market. Of the 30 shares listed in the Dow Jones, 23 shares closed higher last week and only 7 shares suffered a price loss. This indicates that the majority of shares in the Dow Jones are participating. Since the beginning of the year, as many as 25 shares are up and only 5 shares are down.

Walmart

With a year-to-date performance of around 52 %, Walmart is the strongest stock in the Dow Jones Index in the current year. The upward trend is still in full swing and the stock is rising from one all-time high to the next with unabated momentum. After the last three earnings dates, the share broke out to a new high with an upward gap and continued to rise in the weeks that followed. However, a correction to the EMA 20 (purple) or EMA 50 (green) should be awaited in order to jump on the current upward trend. Alternatively, in the event of a correction or consolidation formation, it is advisable to look for an entry point.

Walmart share daily chart

Walmart share daily chart

Goldman Sachs

The Goldman Sachs share currently has an interesting technical chart setup. After breaking out to a new high in July, the share has been moving sideways in recent weeks and has not yet managed to break out of the range. Should there be another correction to the lower end of the sideways range, a long trade would be a good idea in the event of bullish reversal signals. The same applies in the event of a breakout on the upside.

Goldman Sachs Share Daily Chart

Goldman Sachs Share Daily Chart

JP Morgan Chase

The JP Morgan Chase share has been in a clearly visible upward trend for the entire year, with large movement and correction phases. The last correction phase appears to have just come to an end, which is why it makes sense to trade the movement phase in the direction of the trend.

JP Morgan Chase share daily chart

JP Morgan Chase share daily chart

Verizon Communications

After a downward trend lasting several years, the Verizon share has achieved a turnaround in recent months. In the week before last, the share was able to break out of the consolidation formation to the upside, which means that there is a chance of a continuation of the trend. Ideally, there should be another correction to near the breakout level of USD 41 - 42 in order to be able to enter with a tighter stop and an attractive CRV.

Verizon share weekly chart

Verizon share weekly chart

Author: Tobias Schmid
Date: 23.09.2024

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

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