Your Broker for worldwide trading

DAX weekly outlook: US inflation could decide the weal and woe - quarterly figures in view

A busy trading floor with people working at computer stations and large electronic stock exchange boards displaying data overhead, including the latest figures for the DAX weekly outlook.

Investors are eagerly awaiting the publication of new US inflation data. First, however, they are likely to be watching the Fed minutes from the latest Fed meeting this Wednesday evening. Market participants should also keep an eye on the start of the US reporting season. The recent dominance of geopolitical risks due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could also trigger renewed downside risks at any time.

DAX Chart

Source: Tradingview

Joy over strong US jobs report gives way to a sober view

The joy over the latest US jobs report has also given way to a more sober view in this country. The bottom line is that 254,000 new jobs were created in the United States outside of agriculture, which is significantly more than expected (140,000), as announced by the US Department of Labor last Friday. The positive jobs data was also confirmed by the unemployment rate, which fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%. Investors obviously interpreted the data as strength in the US economy, even if the chances of interest rate cuts may have dimmed on the other side.

Investors hope for important clues from Fed notes

Things should get exciting today at 20:00 with the publication of the so-called "FOMC Minutes". Investors are hoping for new clues about the state of US monetary policy. Two weeks ago, the Fed lowered interest rates for the first time since March 2020, heralding the long-awaited turnaround in interest rates.

Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell held out the prospect of interest rate cuts of 50 basis points for the current year. According to the CME Group's Fed Watch tool, there is an 86.7 percent probability that the interest rate will be adjusted by half a percentage point at the upcoming meeting on November 7.

Economists expect US inflation to fall - but core rate could remain at 3.20 percent

The US inflation data on Thursday (14:30) may well decide the weal and woe of the stock market week.
According to current estimates, an inflation rate of 2.30 percent is expected for September (compared to the same month last year), after 2.50 percent in August.
However, the Fed's core inflation rate could remain at 3.20 percent.

On Friday morning (08:00), the focus will initially be on the final inflation rates for the Federal Republic of Germany. A rate of 1.6% is expected, after 1.9% in the previous month (compared to the same month last year).

US producer prices give important inflation signals - Major US banks kick off reporting season

Further important inflation signals could usually be provided by US producer prices (14:30). Experts expect a slowdown of 0.1 percentage points to 0.2 percent compared to the previous month.

In addition to consumer confidence (Reuters/Michigan), investors should keep an eye on the quarterly figures from JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, the Bank of New York Mellon and BlackRock at 16:00. The start of the US reporting season is also likely to be eagerly awaited in Frankfurt am Main.

Timo Emden in a dark suit and tie poses in front of a plain gray background and looks neutrally into the camera.
Timo Emden

Timo Emden holds a B.A. in Business Administration, is a market analyst and a certified blockchain expert from the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. He has been following the global financial markets for over 14 years, with a focus on crypto assets. His assessments are based on chart technology and sentiment - he nevertheless considers important fundamental events to be significant. As a market expert, Mr. Emden is a valued contact for TV, press and radio.

View all posts
Mandatory information and disclaimer

This is a marketing communication within the meaning of Section 63 (6) of the German Securities Trading Act and does not contain investment strategy recommendations, investment recommendations or financial analyses in accordance with Section 85 of the German Securities Trading Act and Article 20 of the Market Abuse Regulation. It therefore does not fulfill the legal requirements to guarantee the objectivity of investment strategy recommendations/investment recommendations/financial analyses. CapTrader GmbH or its employees are therefore not legally prohibited from trading or providing services in the securities products mentioned therein prior to publication of the information.

Past performance, simulations or forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Mandatory information and limitation of liability for CapTrader and any third-party content providers can be found at https://www.captrader.com/marketingmitteilung/angaben
Please note that investing in financial instruments involves high risks and take note of our disclaimer and the mandatory legal information at the locations indicated.

  1. Mandatory information

Responsible: CapTrader GmbH, Elberfelder Straße 2, 40213 Düsseldorf; Commercial Register Number: HRB 86537 Düsseldorf Local Court; VAT ID DE323771603; Managing Directors Andreas Weiß, Christian Weiß, Michael Heyder; Tel: +49 211-740786-00, Fax: +49 211-740786-90.

Zuständige Aufsichtsbehörde: Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, Graurheindorfer Straße 108, D – 53117 Bonn und Marie-Curie-Str. 24-28 D – 60439 Frankfurt am Main, Tel: 0228 4108 – 0 Fax: 0228 4108 1550 E-Mail: poststelle@bafin.de; Institutsnummer 10156708

Conflicts of interest CapTrader in marketing communications: CapTrader GmbH confirms that it does not hold any positions in the mentioned financial instruments beyond the positions mentioned in the marketing communication itself, if applicable. There are also no other conflicts of interest within the meaning of CapTrader GmbH's Financial Analysis and Marketing Communication Policy.

Conflicts of interest and mandatory disclosures by the third-party content provider for marketing communications with financial instrument recommendations: See under https://www.captrader.com/marketingmitteilung/angaben  to creators of third-party content

The copyright to the marketing communication is reserved. Reprinting and distribution is only permitted with our consent.

  1. Disclaimer

By accepting the content, the recipient accepts the binding nature of the limitation of liability.

a) Disclaimer for third-party content

CapTrader GmbH offers authors - such as editors, guest commentators, agencies and companies - the opportunity to publish comments, analyses, news and company announcements. Their opinions do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of CapTrader GmbH and its employees. CapTrader GmbH assumes neither liability nor guarantee for this content. This applies in particular to incomplete or incorrectly reproduced reports, incorrect price information and editorial errors. Liability claims relating to material or immaterial damage caused by the use or non-use of the published information or by the use of incorrect or incomplete information are fundamentally excluded.

b) Exclusion of liability for CapTrader's own content

CapTrader has taken its own information in this marketing communication from sources believed to be reliable, but has not verified all such information itself. Accordingly, CapTrader makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. Subsequent changes cannot be taken into account. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy shares of the issuer and is in no way a substitute for advice appropriate to the investor and the property. We cannot verify whether the information in the marketing communication is in line with your personal investment strategies and objectives. We recommend that you consult an investment advisor for advice that is appropriate to the investor and the property. The marketing communication cannot and should not replace a securities prospectus and/or expert investment advice required for an investment. It can therefore never be the sole basis for an investment decision. By accepting the marketing communication, the recipient accepts the binding nature of the above limitation of liability.

CapTrader provides the information despite careful procurement and provision only without guarantee for the correctness / completeness, timeliness or accuracy and availability of the stock exchange and economic information, prices, rates, indices, general market data, valuations, assessments and other accessible content held and displayed for retrieval. This also applies to third-party content. Historical observations and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future developments. The facts presented in particular in connection with product information are for illustrative purposes only and do not permit any statements to be made about future profits or losses. Any conditions stated are to be understood as non-binding indications and are dependent on market developments on the day of conclusion.

CapTrader accepts no liability for any direct or indirect damage caused by and/or related to the distribution and/or use of this marketing communication.

The information, opinions and statements correspond to the status at the time of preparation of the marketing communication. They may be outdated due to future developments without the publication being changed.

CapTrader is not obliged to update, amend or supplement the information in this marketing communication if a circumstance mentioned in this publication or a statement, estimate or forecast contained therein changes or becomes inaccurate. The presentation of the performance of financial instruments over previous periods does not provide a reliable indication of their future performance. No guarantee can therefore be given for the future price, value or income of any financial instrument mentioned in this publication.

Despite careful control of the content, we assume no liability for the content of external links. The operators of the linked pages are solely responsible for their content.

Distribution: This publication may only be distributed in accordance with the laws of the respective countries, and persons in possession of this publication should inform themselves about the applicable local regulations. The information contained herein is not intended for natural or legal persons who, due to their place of residence or business, are subject to a foreign legal system that imposes restrictions on the distribution of such information. The contents are therefore exclusively in German. In particular, this publication contains neither an offer nor an invitation to purchase securities to citizens of the USA, Great Britain and Australia.

Taxes: The tax treatment of financial instruments depends on the personal circumstances of the respective investor and may be subject to future changes, which may also have a retroactive effect.

Historical observations and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future developments. The facts presented in particular in connection with product information are for illustrative purposes only and do not permit any statements to be made about future profits or losses. Any conditions stated are to be understood as non-binding indications and are dependent on market developments on the day of conclusion.

CapTrader accepts no liability for direct or indirect damage caused by and/or in connection with the distribution and/or use.

The information, opinions and statements correspond to the status at the time of preparation of the marketing communication. They may be outdated due to future developments without the publication being changed.

CapTrader is not obliged to update, amend or supplement the information if a circumstance mentioned in this publication or a statement, estimate or forecast contained therein changes or becomes inaccurate. The presentation of the performance of financial instruments over previous periods does not provide a reliable indication of their future performance. No guarantee can therefore be given for the future price, value or income of any financial instrument mentioned in this publication.

Despite careful control of the content, we assume no liability for the content of external links. The operators of the linked pages are solely responsible for their content.

Distribution: This publication may only be distributed in accordance with the laws of the respective countries, and persons in possession of this publication should inform themselves about the applicable local regulations. The information contained herein is not intended for natural or legal persons who, due to their place of residence or business, are subject to a foreign legal system that imposes restrictions on the distribution of such information. The contents are therefore exclusively in German. In particular, this publication contains neither an offer nor an invitation to purchase securities to citizens of the USA, Great Britain and Australia.

Taxes: The tax treatment of financial instruments depends on the personal circumstances of the respective investor and may be subject to future changes, which may also have a retroactive effect.

Email:

info@captrader.com

Send e-mail

Phone:

Hotline (Germany)
0800-8723370

Hotline (International)
00800-08723370

Further contact options