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Nasdaq 100 Forecast & Analysis: Relative Strength in the Nasdaq 100

The chart of the Nasdaq 100 index captures the uptrend with precise moving averages, stable support lines and the RSI indicator for the period from 2023 to early 2025 like an automatically saved draft.

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.

While the S&P 500 (-0.64 %), the Dow Jones (-1.82 %) and the Russell 2000 (-2.45 %) showed weakness last week, the Nasdaq 100 demonstrated relative strength. The technology index rose 0.73 % over the course of the week and closed at a new all-time high of 21,780 points on Friday.

Consumer prices in line with expectations

The publication of the consumer price index (CPI) for November provided positive impetus on Wednesday. The annual inflation rate rose to 2.7 %, in line with forecasts and thus slightly above the previous month's figure of 2.6 %. On a monthly basis, the CPI increased by 0.3 %, also in line with expectations.

Path clear for interest rate cut this week

As a result, there was no negative surprise and nothing now stands in the way of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points. According to the FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut at the Fed meeting on Wednesday of this week (December 18) now stands at 96 %. Based on the current probabilities, there will be a pause at the January meeting and further rate cuts could follow from March onwards.

Broadcom creates a positive mood

On Friday, Broadcom made the headlines and generated positive sentiment in the technology sector. The semiconductor company published its quarterly results on Thursday evening after the close of trading and rose by around 25 % on a weekly basis. Broadcom's market capitalization has thus exceeded the 1 trillion dollar mark for the first time. The main reason for the strong share price reaction is the optimistic future forecasts. In the fourth quarter of financial year 2024, Broadcom recorded revenue of USD 14.05 billion, an increase of USD 51 % compared to the previous year. Adjusted earnings per share amounted to USD 1.42, exceeding analysts' expectations. 

The growth in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) is particularly noteworthy. AI-related sales increased by USD 220 % to USD 12.2 billion in the 2024 financial year. CEO Hock Tan forecast sales potential in the AI segment of between USD 60 billion and USD 90 billion for the 2027 financial year, strengthening investor confidence in the company's future development. 

Analysts reacted positively to these developments and raised their price targets for Broadcom shares. For example, the Bernstein SocGen Group raised its price target from USD 195 to USD 250 and confirmed its Outperform rating, pointing in particular to the strong AI revenue prospects. 

In addition, Broadcom announced an 11 % increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.59 per share, further underpinning confidence in the company's financial stability and future earnings power.

As you can see on the following daily chart, Broadcom shares completed a wonderful breakout from a rising triangle formation. Should the share price make another correction in the coming days or weeks, this would be a welcome opportunity for a bullish entry.

Braodcom share daily chart

Broadcom share daily chart

Short-term setup in the Nasdaq 100

The breakout of the Nasdaq 100 above 20,700 points on November 6 (after the US election) was initially followed by an exemplary pullback. With the subsequent rally, the Nasdaq 100 was also able to break through the local interim high of 21,150 points on a bullish note, thus generating a new all-time high. In the event of a correction over the next few days, this will provide short-term support in the range of around 21,100 to 21,200 points.

Nasdaq 100 daily chart

Nasdaq 100 Index daily chart

How far will the correction go?

On the weekly chart, you can see that in the event of a somewhat more extensive correction, the next important support is waiting in the area of the weekly EMA 20 (purple) at around 20,500 points.

Nasdaq 100 Wochenchart

Nasdaq 100 Wochenchart

Should the 20,500 points not hold, the upward trend would still be fully intact and the next important support level would be in the area of the weekly EMA 50 (green).

Author: Tobias Schmid
Date: 16.12.2024

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

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