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S&P 500: Defensive sector rotation and seasonal headwinds

Automatically saved draft line chart shows the S&P 500 Index seasonal trends over 5, 10, 20 and 30 years. The lines illustrate a different performance over the course of the month with an upward trend towards December. Labels in German.

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.

After the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high of 6147 points last Wednesday, the bears took over on Thursday and Friday. On a weekly basis, the S&P 500 closed down 1.66%. Although the long-term upward trend is still in full swing, the short-term picture has clouded over somewhat.

Short-term selling pressure

As you can see on the following daily chart of the S&P 500, the index was able to rise above the highs from December and January last week. However, there can be no talk of a sustained breakout and the S&P 500 closed below the resistance area again on Friday and was sold off amid increased volume. The breakout thus appears to have failed for the time being, which increases the likelihood that we can expect some headwinds in the coming days and weeks.

Line chart showing the S&P 500 index from October 2020 to February 2021, with trend lines and volume bars below showing trading activity.
S&P 500 daily chart

However, the long-term upward trend is fully intact and the S&P 500 has some important technical support on the downside. The long-term uptrend line (red) runs at around 5875 points. At the same time, a horizontal support zone is located here. The daily EMA 100 (blue) and the daily EMA 200 (red) could also provide technical support.

Offensive sectors weak, defensive sectors strong

Last week saw a clear sector rotation in the S&P 500. The defensive sectors all made gains:

  • Consumer Staples: +1.95 %
  • Utilities: +1.48 %
  • Health Care: +1.13 %

The offensive sectors, on the other hand, suffered losses:

  • Consumer Discretionary: -3.79 %
  • Communication Services: -2.17 %
  • Technology: -2.13 %
A stock table showing various sectors with symbols, names, latest prices, changes in dollars and percentages, volume and market capitalization. Some sectors are up, others are down.
Weekly performance of the 11 market sectors of the S&P 500

Such a clear sector rotation is a sign that investors are withdrawing capital from risky stocks and investing more in defensive stocks with less risk. Such risk aversion is usually accompanied by falling share prices. However, this only affects the very short-term picture and could be a sign that further weakness is to be expected in the short term in the coming days, or at least until risk appetite returns. 

As far as the long-term picture is concerned, there is currently no clear warning signal. Looking at the last 60 trading days (around 3 months), we can see that the offensive sector Communication Services (XLC) has clearly outperformed. By contrast, the other offensive sectors (XLY and XLK) have performed similarly to the S&P 500. The picture is also mixed in the defensive sectors: while Utilities (XLU) is showing relative weakness, the Health Care sector (XLV) has performed somewhat more strongly and Consumer Staples (XLP) has performed in line with the S&P 500.

Bar chart showing the percentage changes in the S&P 500 sectors from November 28 to February 10, 2023. Communication services rose by 6.17 %, utilities fell by 7.77 %, others vary.
Relative performance of offensive and defensive sectors vs S&P 500 (60 days)

As no clear defensive sector rotation can (yet) be observed, this suggests that we are currently only seeing a correction and that there is potential for a long entry once the correction is over.

If, on the other hand, the sector rotation - out of risk and into safety - continues in the coming weeks, this would be a clear warning signal that should not be underestimated. Almost every trend reversal on the stock market is preceded by a clearly recognizable sector rotation.

Seasonal low in March

However, the current developments fit very well into the seasonal picture. The following chart shows the seasonal trend of the S&P 500 for various time periods. It can be clearly seen that seasonal downward movements frequently occur in January and February. March, on the other hand, is an important local low in the seasonal trend, which is often followed by price rises.

Automatically saved draft line chart shows the S&P 500 Index seasonal trends over 5, 10, 20 and 30 years. The lines illustrate a different performance over the course of the month with an upward trend towards December. Labels in German.

Rise in the VIX

The falling share prices on Friday were accompanied by a significant rise in the VIX. The volatility index peaked at just under 20 points and closed at 18.21 points.

Diagram of the equity volatility index with daily candlestick patterns from September 2014 to February 2015, with moving averages in green and purple lines.
VIX daily chart

The increased volatility makes selling options attractive. Based on the current analysis, a neutral strategy such as an Iron Condor could be an option. Call spreads are sold on the upside and put spreads are sold on the downside. The strategy generates a profit as long as there is no very clear and rapid movement in one direction or the other, or as long as the S&P 500 does not trade significantly above the level of the calls sold or significantly below the level of the puts sold on the expiry date.

Author: Tobias Schmid
Date: 24.02.2025

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

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