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DAX weekly outlook: Jerome Powell in focus - Historic fiscal package could keep investors happy

A busy trading floor with people working at computer stations and large electronic stock exchange boards displaying data overhead, including the latest figures for the DAX weekly outlook.

The prospect of a brilliant financial package from the German government should keep investors in Germany happy. This evening, however, attention will turn to the Fed's second meeting in 2025. Even if no change in the key interest rate is expected, the subsequent press conference with Jerome Powell could provide important impetus.

DAX 40

Source: TradingView

Bundestag adopts debt package for defense, infrastructure and climate protection

The latest decision by the Bundestag on a billion-euro debt package for defense, infrastructure and climate protection could continue to create a celebratory mood on the German stock market. On Tuesday, a debt package introduced by the CDU/CSU and SPD was voted on accordingly. At the same time, a special fund for infrastructure spending amounting to 500 billion euros was also approved.

Customs conflict as a factor of uncertainty - further escalation not ruled out

The seemingly never-ending tariff conflict between the US and the EU, for example, could escalate further. Last week, Trump threatened to impose punitive tariffs of 200% on champagne and wine, for example. A further escalation of the conflict is likely to be detrimental to general market sentiment.

"Fed Watch Tool" signals interest rate pause - investors hope for interest rate cut signals from Powell

This evening, investors are likely to focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at 19:00 and the subsequent FOMC press conference (19:30).

The CME Group's "Fed Watch Tool" continues to calculate that there is a 99% chance of an interest rate pause this evening. The probability of a rate hike of 25 basis points is only 1 percent. The interest rate band is currently quoted at 4.25 to 4.50 percent.

Further economic data ahead on Thursday and Friday - focus on stragglers in the reporting season

Even though the economic calendar this week is comparatively manageable, the weekly initial claims for US unemployment benefits are usually in focus on Thursday (13:30). The Phily Fed manufacturing index could also provide impetus.

On Friday, attention will focus on a scheduled speech by John Williams of the New York Fed (15:05) and consumer confidence for the Eurozone (17:00).

In the current reporting season, figures are expected from RWE (ISIN: DE0007037129) on Thursday and from Salzgitter (ISIN: DE0006202005) on Friday.

Timo Emden in a dark suit and tie poses in front of a plain gray background and looks neutrally into the camera.
Timo Emden

Timo Emden holds a B.A. in Business Administration, is a market analyst and a certified blockchain expert from the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. He has been following the global financial markets for over 14 years, with a focus on crypto assets. His assessments are based on chart technology and sentiment - he nevertheless considers important fundamental events to be significant. As a market expert, Mr. Emden is a valued contact for TV, press and radio.

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