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DAX weekly outlook: Relief for US carmakers in the tariff dispute - NFPs in focus

A busy trading floor with people working at computer stations and large electronic stock exchange boards displaying data overhead, including the latest figures for the DAX weekly outlook.

The trade dispute is likely to remain one of the main topics of discussion. In particular, the publication of the official US labor market report on Friday should cast its shadow. However, a new development could provide a sigh of relief in the smouldering tariff dispute. Yesterday evening, Donald Trump signed an executive order to mitigate the punitive tariffs for the automotive industry.
Please note that the stock exchange doors in Frankfurt am Main will be closed on Thursday due to the Labor Day holiday (May 1).

DAX

Source: TradingView

German inflation in focus - ADP employment data likely to provide first foretaste of "NFPs"

The economic calendar promises possible impulses in the afternoon with the preliminary inflation data for the Federal Republic of Germany (14:00).

Only a short time later (14:15), the ADP employment data should provide a first taste of the official US labor market data (non-farm payrolls), which will be published on Friday. In addition to the publication of gross domestic product (GDP), attention is likely to focus in particular on the so-called "PCE deflator" for personal consumption expenditure (14:30). Investors are hoping for important inflation signals in this context and thus possibly monetary policy stimuli.

Stock exchange doors will remain closed in Frankfurt am Main on Thursday due to the holiday

While there is no trading in Germany on Thursday, stock market activity continues in the USA. However, the only focus there in the afternoon will be on the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector (16:00).

Focus on EU inflation on Friday - US job creation could lose momentum

On Friday, EU inflation data is likely to attract attention first (11:00 am).

The second half of the day should be dominated by the publication of new US jobs data (14:30). Economists expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 135,000 units, after 228,000 new jobs in the previous month. The unemployment rate could remain at 4.20 percent, unchanged from the previous month. Average hourly wages are also expected to rise by 3.90% compared to the same month last year, which is more than in the same period last year (3.80%). In this context, inflation concerns could pick up speed again, as fears of a wage-price spiral are likely to increase.

US reporting season continues to pick up speed - German carmakers disappoint

In the reporting season, today should be particularly exciting with the business figures for the past quarter from Meta and Microsoft. Amazon, Apple and MicroStrategy will report on Thursday.

In Germany, the figures from Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen were already in the spotlight today. Both car manufacturers reported a slump in profits for the first quarter. Mercedes-Benz was confronted in particular with weak business in the Chinese market in the first quarter. Profits fell by 43 percent to 1.73 billion euros. At Volkswagen, profits fell by around 41 percent to 2.19 billion euros in the first three months of the year.

Mercedes-Benz Group AG

Source: TradingView

Volkswagen AG

Source: TradingView

Timo Emden in a dark suit and tie poses in front of a plain gray background and looks neutrally into the camera.
Timo Emden

Timo Emden holds a B.A. in Business Administration, is a market analyst and a certified blockchain expert from the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. He has been following the global financial markets for over 14 years, with a focus on crypto assets. His assessments are based on chart technology and sentiment - he nevertheless considers important fundamental events to be significant. As a market expert, Mr. Emden is a valued contact for TV, press and radio.

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