Your Broker for worldwide trading

Dow Jones before breakout

A stock chart shows price movements with candles, trend lines, support/resistance zones and Bollinger bands and indicates a possible upward trend and important price levels.

Dear trader, dear stock market friends.

The Dow Jones turned green last week in terms of YTD performance and is up 0.51% since the beginning of the year. However, it is still around 2200 points or 5% short of its all-time high from the end of January. Nevertheless, the temporary and rapid price decline in April seems to have been overcome and sentiment has brightened considerably. The Dow ended the first week of June with a gain of 493 points or 1.2% compared to the closing price on May 30. The robust US labor market report on Friday accounted for the lion's share of the rise.

Technical outlook

Over the past four weeks, the Dow Jones has mainly moved sideways in a price range between 41,700 and 42,800 points. On the downside, there is a very important horizontal support zone as well as all important EMAs on a daily basis. From a technical chart perspective, a breakout on the upside would therefore be favored. At the moment, there is still short-term resistance at 41,700 points. If this is overcome, the air would be clear upwards to the old all-time highs.

Candlestick chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average with moving averages, support and resistance zones, an uptrend line and projection arrows; trading volume shown below.
Dow Jones daily charts with EMAs (200, 100, 50, 20, 10)

The declining volatility of recent weeks is also evident when looking at the Bollinger Bands, which are tightening. A basic rule on the stock market is: high volatility is followed by low volatility and low volatility is followed by high volatility. In other words, the longer the sideways phase lasts and the tighter the Bollinger Bands contract ("squeeze"), the more likely it is that the subsequent breakout will lead to new momentum.

A stock chart shows price movements with candles, trend lines, support/resistance zones and Bollinger bands and indicates a possible upward trend and important price levels.
Dow Jones daily chart with Bollinger Bands

Macro data at a glance

The focus last week was on the following economic data:

  • Industry & Services: The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.7 to 48.5 points in May and thus remains in contraction territory. The Services PMI also slipped to 49.9 points - below the expansion threshold for the first time since the end of 2024. 
  • Labor market: The US economy created 139,000 new jobs in May, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2 %. Wage growth of 0.4 % MoM is supporting consumption, but is considered moderate enough to dampen interest rate concerns. 
  • Yields & monetary policy: After the Non Farm Payrolls, the yield on 10-year Treasuries jumped from 4.39 % to 4.51 % - a signal that the market is sticking to the "soft landing" story, but is less aggressively anticipating rapid interest rate cuts by the Fed.

The latest data allows for different interpretations: On the one hand, the renewed decline in both the manufacturing and services PMIs points to slowing growth. 

On the other hand, the labor market remains robust, while wage growth is stable but no longer accelerating. It is precisely this so-called "Goldilocks" combination (only moderate growth without a noticeable slump in employment) that is fueling the soft landing story and keeping hopes of a controlled decline in inflation alive.

However, the reaction on the bond market (steeper yield curve, rise in 10-year yields) shows that expectations of the Fed should probably not be too high. Currently, later and moderate interest rate cuts are being priced in. The bottom line is that the further development of yields and monetary policy is likely to remain data-dependent. The feared inflation risks due to customs policy also remain. Further important inflation data will be published this week. 

Here is an overview of the most important data.

  • US consumer prices (CPI): The May CPI figures will be published on Wednesday, June 11 at 14:30 CEST. Consensus expectations are +0.2 % on a monthly basis and +2.5 % on an annual basis. For the core rate, expectations are 0.3 % (MoM) and +2.9 % (YoY). Should the core rate slip to/below 0.2 % on a monthly basis, Fed Funds futures (currently 66 % probability for the first cut in September) would probably trend towards >80 %; a value of 0.4 % or more, on the other hand, could force the market to reprice again towards December.
  • US producer prices: Although producer prices do not have the same relevance as consumer prices, they can still provide important signals. The data will be published on Thursday, June 12 at 2:30 pm.
  • Customs talks in London: From Monday, June 9, high-ranking delegations led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China's Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet in London for the second round of negotiations since the Geneva "ceasefire" in May. If further agreements are reached, this should be seen as a sign of de-escalation and give the stock markets a tailwind.

Author: Tobias Schmid
Date: 09.06.2025

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

Mandatory information and disclaimer

This is a marketing communication within the meaning of Section 63 (6) of the German Securities Trading Act and does not contain investment strategy recommendations, investment recommendations or financial analyses in accordance with Section 85 of the German Securities Trading Act and Article 20 of the Market Abuse Regulation. It therefore does not fulfill the legal requirements to guarantee the objectivity of investment strategy recommendations/investment recommendations/financial analyses. CapTrader GmbH or its employees are therefore not legally prohibited from trading or providing services in the securities products mentioned therein prior to publication of the information.

Past performance, simulations or forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Mandatory information and limitation of liability for CapTrader and any third-party content providers can be found at https://www.captrader.com/marketingmitteilung/angaben
Please note that investing in financial instruments involves high risks and take note of our disclaimer and the mandatory legal information at the locations indicated.

  1. Mandatory information

Responsible: CapTrader GmbH, Elberfelder Straße 2, 40213 Düsseldorf; Commercial Register Number: HRB 86537 Düsseldorf Local Court; VAT ID DE323771603; Managing Directors Andreas Weiß, Christian Weiß, Michael Heyder; Tel: +49 211-740786-00, Fax: +49 211-740786-90.

Zuständige Aufsichtsbehörde: Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, Graurheindorfer Straße 108, D – 53117 Bonn und Marie-Curie-Str. 24-28 D – 60439 Frankfurt am Main, Tel: 0228 4108 – 0 Fax: 0228 4108 1550 E-Mail: poststelle@bafin.de; Institutsnummer 10156708

Conflicts of interest CapTrader in marketing communications: CapTrader GmbH confirms that it does not hold any positions in the mentioned financial instruments beyond the positions mentioned in the marketing communication itself, if applicable. There are also no other conflicts of interest within the meaning of CapTrader GmbH's Financial Analysis and Marketing Communication Policy.

Conflicts of interest and mandatory disclosures by the third-party content provider for marketing communications with financial instrument recommendations: See under https://www.captrader.com/marketingmitteilung/angaben  to creators of third-party content

The copyright to the marketing communication is reserved. Reprinting and distribution is only permitted with our consent.

  1. Disclaimer

By accepting the content, the recipient accepts the binding nature of the limitation of liability.

a) Disclaimer for third-party content

CapTrader GmbH offers authors - such as editors, guest commentators, agencies and companies - the opportunity to publish comments, analyses, news and company announcements. Their opinions do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of CapTrader GmbH and its employees. CapTrader GmbH assumes neither liability nor guarantee for this content. This applies in particular to incomplete or incorrectly reproduced reports, incorrect price information and editorial errors. Liability claims relating to material or immaterial damage caused by the use or non-use of the published information or by the use of incorrect or incomplete information are fundamentally excluded.

b) Exclusion of liability for CapTrader's own content

CapTrader has taken its own information in this marketing communication from sources believed to be reliable, but has not verified all such information itself. Accordingly, CapTrader makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. Subsequent changes cannot be taken into account. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy shares of the issuer and is in no way a substitute for advice appropriate to the investor and the property. We cannot verify whether the information in the marketing communication is in line with your personal investment strategies and objectives. We recommend that you consult an investment advisor for advice that is appropriate to the investor and the property. The marketing communication cannot and should not replace a securities prospectus and/or expert investment advice required for an investment. It can therefore never be the sole basis for an investment decision. By accepting the marketing communication, the recipient accepts the binding nature of the above limitation of liability.

CapTrader provides the information despite careful procurement and provision only without guarantee for the correctness / completeness, timeliness or accuracy and availability of the stock exchange and economic information, prices, rates, indices, general market data, valuations, assessments and other accessible content held and displayed for retrieval. This also applies to third-party content. Historical observations and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future developments. The facts presented in particular in connection with product information are for illustrative purposes only and do not permit any statements to be made about future profits or losses. Any conditions stated are to be understood as non-binding indications and are dependent on market developments on the day of conclusion.

CapTrader accepts no liability for any direct or indirect damage caused by and/or related to the distribution and/or use of this marketing communication.

The information, opinions and statements correspond to the status at the time of preparation of the marketing communication. They may be outdated due to future developments without the publication being changed.

CapTrader is not obliged to update, amend or supplement the information in this marketing communication if a circumstance mentioned in this publication or a statement, estimate or forecast contained therein changes or becomes inaccurate. The presentation of the performance of financial instruments over previous periods does not provide a reliable indication of their future performance. No guarantee can therefore be given for the future price, value or income of any financial instrument mentioned in this publication.

Despite careful control of the content, we assume no liability for the content of external links. The operators of the linked pages are solely responsible for their content.

Distribution: This publication may only be distributed in accordance with the laws of the respective countries, and persons in possession of this publication should inform themselves about the applicable local regulations. The information contained herein is not intended for natural or legal persons who, due to their place of residence or business, are subject to a foreign legal system that imposes restrictions on the distribution of such information. The contents are therefore exclusively in German. In particular, this publication contains neither an offer nor an invitation to purchase securities to citizens of the USA, Great Britain and Australia.

Taxes: The tax treatment of financial instruments depends on the personal circumstances of the respective investor and may be subject to future changes, which may also have a retroactive effect.

Historical observations and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future developments. The facts presented in particular in connection with product information are for illustrative purposes only and do not permit any statements to be made about future profits or losses. Any conditions stated are to be understood as non-binding indications and are dependent on market developments on the day of conclusion.

CapTrader accepts no liability for direct or indirect damage caused by and/or in connection with the distribution and/or use.

The information, opinions and statements correspond to the status at the time of preparation of the marketing communication. They may be outdated due to future developments without the publication being changed.

CapTrader is not obliged to update, amend or supplement the information if a circumstance mentioned in this publication or a statement, estimate or forecast contained therein changes or becomes inaccurate. The presentation of the performance of financial instruments over previous periods does not provide a reliable indication of their future performance. No guarantee can therefore be given for the future price, value or income of any financial instrument mentioned in this publication.

Despite careful control of the content, we assume no liability for the content of external links. The operators of the linked pages are solely responsible for their content.

Distribution: This publication may only be distributed in accordance with the laws of the respective countries, and persons in possession of this publication should inform themselves about the applicable local regulations. The information contained herein is not intended for natural or legal persons who, due to their place of residence or business, are subject to a foreign legal system that imposes restrictions on the distribution of such information. The contents are therefore exclusively in German. In particular, this publication contains neither an offer nor an invitation to purchase securities to citizens of the USA, Great Britain and Australia.

Taxes: The tax treatment of financial instruments depends on the personal circumstances of the respective investor and may be subject to future changes, which may also have a retroactive effect.

Email:

info@captrader.com

Send e-mail

Phone:

Hotline (Germany)
0800-8723370

Hotline (International)
00800-08723370

Further contact options