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DAX weekly outlook: ECB and US inflation data ahead

A busy trading floor with people working at computer stations and large electronic stock exchange boards displaying data overhead, including the latest figures for the DAX weekly outlook.

In addition to the eagerly awaited publication of new US inflation data, investors are likely to focus on the European Central Bank's (ECB) key interest rate decision. However, after the latest US jobs data on Tuesday, the buying mood on the German stock market is likely to remain limited. It remains to be seen whether investors will be tempted out of their shells before the Christmas holidays.

DAX

 

Hoped-for tailwind from US labor market reports fails to materialize

In October, non-farm payrolls in the United States fell by 105,000 jobs. In November, the job market recorded an increase of 64,000 jobs. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6 percent in November, which is also the highest level in four years. The rate for the month of October was not published on Tuesday afternoon.

According to the CME Group's „Fed Watch Tool“, 19.9% of market participants currently expect a further rate hike of a quarter of a percentage point at the first meeting of the new year (January 28, 2026), compared with a 24.4% probability from a day ago. After the interest rate hike a week ago, the Fed could tend to hold its feet still for the time being, which should curb the general risk mood.

Investors must process ifo business climate index

Already this morning, investors had to digest new data on the widely observed ifo business climate index. The mood in the German economy deteriorated once again. In December, the index fell by 0.4 points to 87.6 points. The Munich-based institute surveys around 9,000 managers every month. A slight increase was expected in advance.

ECB could leave key interest rate unchanged - monetary policy stimulus from Christine Lagarde possible

The ECB's key interest rate is expected to be announced on Thursday at 14:15. The subsequent press conference with Christine Lagarde will come into focus from 14:45.

It is less expected that the ECB will turn the interest rate screws. The so-called deposit rate currently stands at 2.0 percent.

US inflation data for November expected on Thursday afternoon

Fresh US consumer price data is expected in between, i.e. at 14:30. However, the figures in question are the November values. Due to the US budget dispute, the data for October could not be collected retrospectively.

The core rate of US inflation is also expected, which is regarded by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) not least as a guideline for assessing inflation.

In September, consumer prices stood at 3.0%, well above the medium-term target of 2.0%. Despite the stubborn inflation, the Fed decided last Wednesday to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. The monetary authorities referred to the increasing cracks in the labor market.

Focus on consumer sentiment data on both sides of the Atlantic on Friday

On Friday, new GfK consumer sentiment data will be published in Germany (08:00).

The final consumer sentiment data for the USA (Uni Michigan) will round off the trading week at 16:00.

Timo Emden in a dark suit and tie poses in front of a plain gray background and looks neutrally into the camera.
Timo Emden

Timo Emden holds a B.A. in Business Administration, is a market analyst and a certified blockchain expert from the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. He has been following the global financial markets for over 14 years, with a focus on crypto assets. His assessments are based on chart technology and sentiment - he nevertheless considers important fundamental events to be significant. As a market expert, Mr. Emden is a valued contact for TV, press and radio.

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