Ahead of Nvidia's earnings release and the kickoff of the central bankers' meeting in Jackson Hole, investors are keeping their powder dry. The notorious calm before the storm prevails. Nvidia's quarterly figures could become a litmus test for investors' risk appetite and, consequently, for the markets' appetite for valuations. Investors are likely to show their colors as to whether they will continue to give advance trust to the AI-driven growth story or whether the hour of fundamental reckoning has arrived.
NVIDIA's results for the past quarter (ISIN: US67066G1040) are expected this evening after the US market close.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
US price data in focus – Monetary policy impulses still conceivable
Important US price data will be in the spotlight this afternoon. The core rate for personal consumption expenditures is expected. Economists expect an increase of 0.2 percent compared to the previous month, following 0.1 percent in July. Last but not least, this data is also considered the preferred inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Also at the same time (2:30 PM), durable goods orders and the growth rate of US Gross Domestic Product are also due.
In this context, monetary policy impulses are conceivable. The CME Group's „Fed Watch Tool“ currently prices the probability of a pause in interest rates at the September 16 meeting at 63.9 percent and for a 25 basis point rate hike at 36.1 percent. The target rate range itself is currently 3.50 to 3.75 percent.
Central bankers' meeting in Jackson Hole in focus on Friday – High tension ahead of Warsh speech
On Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will come into particular focus (4:00 PM), as he is expected at the annual central bankers' meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This economic symposium takes place from August 27 to August 29. Investors are likely hoping that Warsh will provide signals to ease tensions in light of recent uncertainty in the US bond market. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had announced last Wednesday that he would increase buybacks of long-term bonds, following which the yield on 30-year government securities dropped significantly.
30-year US Treasury bonds
NVIDIA stock: Expectations for quarterly results high – distinct potential for disappointment
Analysts expect Nvidia to have catapulted its second-quarter revenue to around 92 billion US dollars, which would equate to nearly doubling compared to the second quarter of the previous year. Earnings per share could be at 2.10 dollars. Wall Street also anticipates that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will forecast revenue of over 100 billion US dollars for the already ongoing quarter.
NVIDIA chart on a monthly basis
