The geopolitical pawn is back in play and thus back on the main stage for the markets. The Iran conflict could once again become the pace-setter for risk appetite. What recently appeared to be a background risk is now moving back into the spotlight, forcing investors to re-evaluate the geopolitical risk map.
Investors are currently walking a tightrope between confidence and caution. Geopolitical tensions, waning AI euphoria, and profit-taking are putting the DAX in a squeeze.
Developments in the Iran war underscore that the framework agreement is no guarantee of sustainable stabilization. The seesaw stock market is likely to continue accompanying investors for the time being. Uncertainty could remain high in the interim, caught between hope for de-escalation and new geopolitical concerns. Today, the minutes from the last US Federal Reserve meeting are in focus. Investors are eagerly awaiting the starting gun for the US earnings season.
DAX
Donald Trump declares framework agreement and ceasefire with Iran null and void
US President Donald Trump has declared the latest framework agreement and the ceasefire between the United States and Iran null and void. In the run-up, there had been reciprocal attacks. On the night of Tuesday to Wednesday, the US military had already carried out numerous attacks against Iran, reacting to the recent Iranian attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
„FOMC Minutes“ could offer monetary policy clues – US monetary policy is likely to remain a central theme
The focus of the economic calendar this evening is the so-called „FOMC Minutes,“ which investors should study for monetary policy clues. The Fed minutes may provide important signals regarding future US monetary policy. Two weeks ago, the US central bank last left the key interest rate at a range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent, and compared to the European Central Bank (ECB), it did not initiate an interest rate hike.
According to the latest data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool, 68.5% of market participants expect another interest rate pause at the next scheduled meeting on July 29th, while 31.5% anticipate a 25 basis point rate hike.
The start of the reporting season in the US could also provide impetus here at home.
Investors are also eagerly awaiting the upcoming earnings season in the US. On Thursday and Friday, companies such as PepsiCo (ISIN: US7134481081) and Delta Air Lines (ISIN: US2473617023) will be releasing their results.
On Tuesday, Bank of America (ISIN: US0605051046), Citigroup (ISIN: US1729674242), Goldman Sachs (ISIN: US38141G1040), JPMorgan (ISIN: US46625H1005), and Wells Fargo (ISIN: US9497461015) will report their results for the past fiscal quarter.
