The joy over the signed Iran deal is likely to be dampened by ongoing US interest rate concerns. Markets may temporarily shelve the geopolitical act and turn their attention back to the world economy's outstanding debts. As the geopolitical stage clears, the interplay of inflation, interest rates, and AI moves from the sidelines to the center of market events. At the same time, the AI rally on Wall Street is once again put to the test. A week after the much-watched SpaceX IPO, initial euphoria has given way to a more sober assessment. Initial profit-taking and more critical evaluations of ambitious growth fantasies could indicate early signs of consolidation.
DAX
USA and Iran Sign Framework Agreement - ZEW Index Significantly Better Than Expected
The USA and Iran have signed their recently announced framework agreement. This is how the rules were initially defined for both Iran and the USA to reach a final agreement within 60 days.
With a total of 10.5 points, the ZEW index for economic expectations was significantly above the estimates made beforehand (-6 points), after -10.2 points in the previous month. The background for this is likely the hope for an end to the Iran conflict.
US retail sales pick up – part of the increase due to higher gasoline prices
U.S. retail sales for the month of May rose 0.9 percent from the previous month, significantly more than expected (0.5 percent), after 0.4 percent (revised) in April. Part of last month's increase was therefore attributable to higher gasoline prices, it was stated.
Mid-week, as expected, the Fed's monetary policy meeting under the premiere of Kevin Warsh caused quite a stir. Even though the US currency guardian left interest rates unchanged at a range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent, as estimated by economists beforehand, the new Fed chairman's rhetoric likely caused uncertainty. Investors may have interpreted Warsh's words as hawkish.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the chance of a quarter-percentage-point interest rate hike at the upcoming meeting on July 29, 2026, is estimated at 36.3 percent, up from 8.3 percent a week ago.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
SpaceX with Largest IPO in History – Initial Euphoria Put to the Test
The recent IPO of AI and aerospace company SpaceX (ISIN: US84615Q1031) is likely to continue to be a topic of discussion. At $150, the initial stock price was around eleven percent above the issue price of $135. The company sold approximately 555 million shares, thus raising about $75 billion.
SpaceX
