The war in Iran and its unforeseeable consequences for the global economy are likely to remain the central topic of discussion in the market. However, US investors may have become accustomed to the crisis noise and may be ignoring the risks and side effects of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, meaning that overly euphoric investors could be caught off guard at any time. Trump had also announced that he wanted to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
Market participants are particularly focused on the US labor market data this week.
Negotiations between Tehran and Washington are stalled - US wants to escort ships through strait
Investors continue to hope for a major breakthrough and a possible peace treaty between the parties to the conflict, despite ongoing tensions between Washington and Tehran. Markets have also become accustomed to the uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict. As long as there is no major military escalation, the issue is perceived more as background noise. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran continue in the background. Iran is currently examining a US response to its recent 14-point plan. According to the Iranian Foreign Ministry, the United States transmitted a response to Iran's aforementioned proposal via the mediator Pakistan.
Late Sunday evening, U.S. President Donald Trump also announced his intention to free ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz today. For over two months, the strait has been largely blocked by Iran for shipping, with the exception of its own vessels. On the other hand, the U.S. is blocking Iranian ports.
Focus on ISM Purchasing Managers, JOLTs, and ADP Data
The ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index is on the agenda on Tuesday (4:00 PM).
The so-called „JOLTS“ (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) should be monitored at the same time, which, like the ADP employment data, could provide a first preview of the official US labor market report on Wednesday (2:15 PM).
On Friday, US labor market data (non-farm payrolls) will be in focus (2:30 PM). A job increase of only 73,000 positions is expected outside of agriculture, after a total of 178,000 new jobs were created in March. The unemployment rate is estimated to remain at 4.3 percent, unchanged compared to the previous month.
Preliminary consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan will round out the trading week on Friday afternoon (4:00 PM).
US earnings season: numerous companies present results
In the reporting season, today will focus on the results of Palantir's (ISIN: US69608A1088) past business quarter, on Tuesday on MicroStrategy's (ISIN: US5949724083), and in the middle of the week on Walt Disney's (ISIN: US2546871060).
On Thursday, McDonald's (ISIN: US5801351017) and Coinbase (ISIN: US19260Q1076) will report.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
